16 Mar Weekly Ahead Notes for Mar 16th-20th, 2015
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Total Weekly Profit:Â Â + $4,240 (last week 3/9-3/13/2015)
Total Monthly Profit: + $7,442
Total Yearly Profit: Â Â + $16,170
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SPY sold off on the daily stochastic full oscillation move towards the 20 band as the 204.40s-204.40s stinky 5s levels were able to fend off two break attempts and coil the SPY back to the daily 50 period ma at the 205.93. Â The daily MSL triggers above 207.20, while the Weekly MSH was triggered at 207.09. The daily is in a potential make or break with the 15 period ma at 209.25 and 5 period ma at 206.15 with lower bbs at 203.43. The 204.94 and 204.24 are strong fibs to pay attention to.
Here are the key areas on the SPY to watch this week
212.67 - fib
211.66 - daily doji
210.59 - daily MSH trigger
209.74 - fib
209.35 - daily 15pd ma
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger
205.93 – daily 50 period ma
204.94 - fib
204.24 - fib
203.43 and 203.50 – daily lower Bollinger bands and fib
The question this week will be whether the daily stochastics cross back up or attempt to cross and then slope back down as a mini inverse pup towards the daily lower bbs. It’s also interested to note how that weekly MSH literally overlaps with the daily MSL at that 207.09x207.20 area.  Watch that area early on if they manage to gap or bounce this week. The elephant in the room is what the FOMC decision for a rate hike will be on Wednesday and their statement.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
AAPL Long/Short – AAPL forms a daily MSL above 125.42, with a 124.78 trail stop for a tightening back towards the 125.87, 126.64 and 127.15 fibs and weekly 5 period ma. Shorts would trigger if AAPL forms a daily mini inverse pup breakdown by rejection off the daily 5 period ma at 124.38/124.40 fib resistance with a 60 min stochastics peak and slip for a retest of the 122.50s lows and potential downside to daily lower bbs 120.76 if the SPY cracks hard through the 203.50 fib.This one moves with the SPY.
STZ Short – STZ forms a daily MSH trigger SHORT under 115.75 with a 117.76 trail stop for a tightening back to the weekly 5 period ma 114.20s and daily 50 period ma at 111.30 with best case at the monthly 5 period ma 107.50s IF the SPY proceeded to sell-off after Wednesday.
ABBV Short – ABBV coiled on the daily stochastic triggering the MSL at 56.89 breakout through monthly 5 period ma at 57.11 as it peaked near the gap fill area at 59.03 and weekly 5 period ma resistance at 58.66-58.86 resistance. The weekly mini inverse pup is testing the stochastic 20 band as the daily goes into a make or break. Fibs sit at 62.75, 61.16, 58.55, 57, 56.46 super fib, 55.23 and 52.05.  Longs trigger above 59.24 for an upside to 61.16 fib and 62.75 fib targets. Shorts trigger below 56.25 for a retest of the 55.25 low fibs with secondary targets near 52.05 fib.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs
GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50
BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs
Econ Reports This Week
Mar 16 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Mar
9.0 8.8 7.8
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb
0.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb
79.4% 79.5% 79.4%
Mar 16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Mar
55 56 55
Mar 16 16:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan
NA NA $35.4B
Mar 17 08:30 Building Permits Feb
1040K 1070K 1053K
Mar 17 08:30 Housing Starts Feb
1030K 1040K 1065K
Mar 18 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/14
NA NA -1.3%
Mar 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/14
NA NA 4.512M
Mar 18 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision Mar
0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Mar 19 08:30 Initial Claims 03/14
300K 294K 289K
Mar 19 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/07
2420K 2420K 2418K
Mar 19 08:30 Current Account Balance Q4
-$105.0B -$105.0B -$100.3B
Mar 19 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar
8.0 7.2 5.2
Mar 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb
0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 19 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 03/14
NA NA -198 bcf
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: TESO, RDNT, STRL: postmarket: MPO, PRSC, FTEK, FTEK, NES, APP, CALL, OMER, XONE, STRI, PWRD, QUNR, HLIT, WG
Tues: premarket: ABRA, PLUG, IOC, DSW, BURL: postmarket: OCN, CDNA, FRSH, ADBE, ORCL
Wed: premarket: GLYC, FDX, GIS, ATU: postmarket: CORT, KTWO, SFS, SLW, WSM, RENN, GOMO, GES, TLYS, JBL, CTAS, CLC, JUNO
Thurs: premarket: CRCM, CATO, MIK, PERY, DANG, TECD, LEN: postmarket: INGN, VTL, YOKU, CTRP, MFRM, NMW, NKE
Fri: premarket: CMCM, TIF, DRI, KBH
The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday is the big event this week. Be prepared and ready to react. I will be OUT on Monday and Tuesday for a special project and back in the room on Wednesday. Cya in the Pit! – J
* Check for weekly and daily blog updates with charts and analysis of our trades every morning at http://www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com
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** For an explanation on mini pups check here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEsN2a-msBw&feature=related
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It’s a good idea to read through and get the concept of mini pups down. The methods all revolve around that simple pattern set up on the stochastics.
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