Week Ahead Notes for June 8th-12th, 2015

07 Jun Week Ahead Notes for June 8th-12th, 2015

 

Hi Gang,

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Follow the daily trading blog at www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com for daily updated analysis of trades and tracking profit/loss totals:

Total Weekly P/L:      + $3,036

Total Monthly P/L:      + $3,036

Total Yearly Profit: + $32,776

SPY ended the week with a daily doji at the 50 period ma and stochastic mini inverse pup. The daily 5 period moving average sits at 210.95 and 50 period ma at 210.06 with lower Bollinger bands at 208.58. The weekly has a make or break with 5 and 15 period ma at 211.59 and 209.66 respectfully.   The SPY closed under the daily 50 period moving average at 210.06 but with a doji. The daily 50 period ma has been a very resilient support that the SPY has rarely stayed under for more than two consecutive days.

The monthly 5 period ma sits at 209.30 as the bounce off that level has the stochastic coiled for a mini pup if the weekly stochastic can cross back up. Keep an eye on that 209.30 and 208.60 support areas this week, which are the monthly 5 period and daily lower bbs. While the SPY may work its way below the monthly 5 period ma, it is important to pay attention when it pops back up through that area (209.30) as that can trigger powerful spikes due to the monthly mini pup impulse reaction.   The ultimately confirmation would come on a weekly stochastic cross up, which can take some time unless there was a drastic gap and grind up. With the daily doji close, the 209.77 is the line in the sand this week with the daily 50 period ma just above at 210;08 and the monthly 5 period ma below at 209.31 and then the various fibs 209.74 and 209.21. We will look for the daily lower bbs to get tested early in the week and then coil attempts off there. There is one caveat. The daily lower Bollinger bands also overlap with the 208.58 weekly seed wave trigger. If that cracks then a move towards the 207.20-207.09 which are the dueling daily MSL and weekly MSH trigger levels. Things can get very tricky from here as it sets up a weekly bearish seedwave collapse or a coil back up through the monthly 5 period ma mini pup breakout.   Time will tell, just be ready to react as the bumpers get tested.

Important SPY bumpers this week:

217.26 – daily fib (1.618 PRZ)

215.60 – daily fib (1.414 PRZ)

214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)

213.78 – All time high

212.67 – fib

212.50 – daily MSH

212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger

211.66 - daily doji

211.31 - fib

210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1

210.58 – fib

210.07 – daily 50 period ma

209.74 - fib

209.44 – Super fib

209.30 – Monthly 5 period moving average mini pup possible?

209.16 – Super Fib

208.81 - fib

208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER

208.18 – fib

207.86 – fib

207.22 – Super fib

207.20 – daily MSL trigger

207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2

206.75 – Super Fib

205.96 – daily MSL trigger

205.05 – Daily fib

205.86 – Super fib

205.05 - fib

204.94 – fib

204.21 – Super Fib

203.50 – fib

202.50 – daily lower bbs

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

CYBR Long – CYBR has been a laggard to FEYE but finally bounced on Friday. The daily bbs have been in a tightening compression. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 64.97 fib or daily 5 period ma/weekly 5 period ma at 63.66 with a – 2pt trail stop for the 67.86 fib target and secondary target at the 70.40s

KITE Short – KITE rallied hard last week along with the whole CAR-T immunotherapy sector (JUNO, BLUE, BLCM) as it achieves mainstream transparency. As more people ‘discover’ this sector, the law of transparency will play out just as it has with 3D printing, Cloud, Alternative Energy, Genomics, etc. KITE has super fib resistances at 62.11 and 63.16. Shorts can be taken at 62 and added at 63.10-63.50 with a trail stop on 65.30 breaks for a tightening back to 59.70s weekly 15 period ma and 58 prior swing high and 56.36 gap fill.

DE Long – DE has been selling off since earnings peak at 91.88. It has since triggered a daily mini inverse pup that made a lower lower on Friday at 91.24. If Monday closes in the green, then a daily MSL will form, that triggered on Tuesday above the high of Monday’s trading. Longs trigger at 91-90.75 off the monthly 5 period ma on pullbacks with a – 1.27 trail stop for the weekly and monthly mini pup towards the 96 upper daily Bollinger bands.

INTC, MU, CPB, PG   looking for daily MSL LONG triggers.   Keep an eye for a green day and then the next day high as the trigger break for longs above the high of that 2^nd day.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20, 66.19

MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45

MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86

POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80

LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.

FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42

Econ Reports This Week

Jun 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr
0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 09 10:00 JOLTS - Job Openings April
NA NA 4.994M
Jun 10 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 06/06
NA NA -7.6%
Jun 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/06
NA NA -1.948M
Jun 10 14:00 Treasury Budget May
NA NA -$130.0B
Jun 11 08:30 Initial Claims 06/06
275K 278K 276K
Jun 11 08:30 Continuing Claims 05/30
2222K 2200K 2196K
Jun 11 08:30 Retail Sales May
1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Jun 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May
0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Jun 11 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May
NA NA -0.7%
Jun 11 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May
NA NA -0.4%
Jun 11 10:00 Business Inventories Apr
0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 11 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 06/06
NA NA 132 bcf
Jun 12 08:30 PPI May
0.5% 0.5% -0.4%
Jun 12 08:30 Core PPI May
0.2% 0.1% -0.2%
Jun 12 10:00 Mich Sentiment Jun
92.5 91.5 90.7

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket:   SHLD, BRLI, DATE, MTN, PRGN: postmarket: HRB, CASY, KANG, UNFI, FEL, CBK, PLAY, LAYN, PBY, TPLM

Tues: premarket:   ISLE, HOV, BURL, ZQK, HDS, LULU, SAIC: postmarket: GEF, LUMNR, SURG, MFRM, OXM, SIGM, APIC

Wed: premarket: FRAN: postmarket: BV, BOX, KKD, MW, DDC

Thurs: postmarket: RLD, LF, GLPW, KFY, XONE, RH, BOJA

SPY hasn’t been held under the daily 50 period ma for more than a day two days so be aware of the buoyancy of that support and the looming monthly mini pup. This will continue to be a choppy week so allocate and pace properly.   Watch for reactions off the key bumpers 210.58, 209.21, 208.58 and 207.09.  Cya in the Pit! - J

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