Weekly Notes for Mar 2nd-6th, 2015

02 Mar Weekly Notes for Mar 2nd-6th, 2015


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SPY peaked last week at 212.24, formed a daily doji at 211.66 and a daily market structure high trigger under 210.59. Interestingly, the bulls were able to close the SPY at 210.66, just above the MSH sell trigger at 210.59. The daily stochastics finally peaked and crossed down from that 98 band with the 5 period moving average at 211.34 which becomes the main bumper to watch as it is the protector if the daily mini inverse pup and a good area to consider shorts. A rejection or fall back under that daily 5 period ma galvanized the daily mini inverse pup which then points to a tightening to the daily 15 period ma bumper at 209.34 area. The daily stochastics will test the 80 band on that move and attempt a coil/tightening back up to the daily 5 period ma again, unless they completely crack the SPY to the weekly 5 period ma bumper at 207.40 area to stall out the weekly stochastic. Keep in mind there are two very strong fibs at 209.74 and 207.86 to be aware of should the SPY get follow through on the daily mini inverse pup.


Here are the key areas on the SPY to watch this week:

212.67 - fib

211.66 - daily doji

210.59 - daily MSH trigger

209.74 - fib

209.35 - daily 15pd ma

207.86 - fib

207.40 - weekly 5pd ma

Ultimately it will come down to how the weekly stochastic stall resolves, either a mini pup as it bounces off the 5 period moving average or a cross down if it slips to test the 15 period ma at 206.05 area. We have the playing field laid out, it’s just matter of seeing how the pinball plays off the bumpers.

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

INTC Short - INTC formed a perfect storm breakdown on Friday when it slipped under the weekly 5 period ma at 33.67 which was just below the high. Shorts trigger on any coils back to 33.50-33.80 area or a break through 33.18 with targets at the daily lower bbs at 32.70s-32.40s,

SBUX Short – SBUX formed a daily mini inverse pup under the daily 5 period ma at 93.86 on a weekly doji as monthly mini pup above upper bbs at 93.03. Shorts trigger at 93.80-94.10 area or a break of the 93.30 area for a channel tightening to the daily 15 period ma at 92.40s-92.30s with secondary targets are weekly 5 period ma at 91.30s-91.00 if the daily 15pd ma breaks.   Use a -..76 trail stop.

GIS Long – This was featured on last week’s report as a long as it closed at the week’s high. The monthly chart has a pup and mini pup with 52.86 as 5 period ma support. The weekly is still in a make or break and hasn’t yet trigger the stochastic cross to form a pup, which means it can still mini inverse pup if daily peaks out.   Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 53.25-53.00 area for a move to the daily upper bbs at 54.15-54.40 area, then 55.40-55.60 area.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs

Econ Reports This Week

Mar 02 08:30 Personal Income Jan
0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
Mar 02 08:30 Personal Spending Jan
-0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
Mar 02 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Jan
0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Mar 02 10:00 ISM Index Feb
51.0 53.0 53.5
Mar 02 10:00 Construction Spending Jan
0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Mar 03 14:00 Auto Sales Feb
NA NA 5.5M
Mar 03 14:00 Truck Sales Feb
NA NA 8.1M
Mar 04 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 02/28
Mar 04 08:15 ADP Employment Change Feb
230K 220K 213K
Mar 04 10:00 ISM Services Feb
55.5 56.5 56.7
Mar 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/28
NA NA 8.427M
Mar 04 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Mar
Mar 05 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Feb
Mar 05 08:30 Initial Claims 02/28
300K 295K 313K
Mar 05 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/21
2400K 2403K 2401K
Mar 05 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4
-1.6% -2.3% -1.8%
Mar 05 08:30 Unit Labor Costs -Rev Q4
2.5% 2.9% 2.7%
Mar 05 10:00 Factory Orders Jan
-0.1% 0.7% -3.4%
Mar 05 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 02/28
NA NA -219K
Mar 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb
240K 240K 257K
Mar 06 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Feb
230K 230K 267K
Mar 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb
5.6% 5.6% 5.7%
Mar 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb
0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
Mar 06 08:30 Average Workweek Feb
34.5 34.6 34.6
Mar 06 08:30 Trade Balance Jan
-$38.7B -$42.0B -$46.6B
Mar 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan
$12.0B $13.0B $14.8B

Earnings Reports This Week:





Fri: premarket: FRM, VTG, TRCO, SPLS, FL, BIG

All eyes will be watching how the SPY handles its first daily stochastics peak off the highs.   Keep in mind the 80 band is the stochastic support area needed to break to get a full oscillation down. If they take out the high then watch that 212.67 fib as last resistance area before a breakout. Pace and allocate properly. Cya in the Pit! - J

* Check for weekly and daily blog updates with charts and analysis of our trades every morning at http://www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com

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