Weekly Notes for Feb 9th-14th, 2015

08 Feb Weekly Notes for Feb 9th-14th, 2015

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SPY managed to finally break through the 106.42 swing resistance to grind up to 107.24 new swing high before reversion back down through the gap fill area on Friday. This technically sets up a MSH (market structure high) trigger under 204.29 (204.48 is actually MSH trigger but taking stinky 5s and fibs into consideration). The daily 5 period ma sits at 204.50 and daily 50 period ma at 204.40 as stochastic stall on the 80 band. There are 2 possible scenarios from here: 1) A reversion back down to re-test the daily 5 period ma and fib clusters from 204.94-203.88 monthly 5 period ma, before bouncing back up with 60 minute stochastics to for a daily mini pup breakout above the 5pd ma. 3) Continue to grind back up when 60 minute stochastics get crossed back up since the daily 5period ma is still rising with stochastics to retest 207.24 swing highs for a break towards the daily upper bbs 208.61. 2) Trigger the daily MSH and proceed to cross down and breakthrough the various 204s bumper clusters to crack down through monthly 5 period ma 203.88 and 203.50 fib at 202.29 for a stochastics peak sell-off to 202.
spyaly02082015
Key fibs and market structure levels on the SPY are at 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 207.24 swing high, 206.58, 206.42, 204.94/204.87 <- monthly 15pd ma, 204.24, 203.50, 202.73- MSL gap fill, 201.94, 198.61 fib, 196.58.


The monthly and weekly stochastics are at the kissing point again either ready to cross up or mini inverse pup. Most notably the monthly stochastic coil attempt at the 80 band will be the most significant resolution.
Earnings season continues this week.

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

TWTR Long – TWTR peaked near the 48.82 fib with 45.72 daily upper bbs.on earnings reaction. The 60 min is a make or break. Longs trigger above the 49.05 with a 48.29 trail stop for a move towards the 50.51 and 51.19 fibs.

YUM Long on Pullback – YUM trendline sits at 71.80s. Longs trigger on reversion back to the 72.15-71.85 range with a 72.30 trail stop for a coil back towards the 74.50-75.00 range and secondary target near the 76 trendline.

DUK Long/Short – DUK leaned hard on earnings Friday. The daily lower bbs sit at 82.78 with daily trendline support at the 82.50s on a daily mini inverse pup. Longs trigger at the 92.83-82.52 area with a - .53 trail stop or at the 81.90-81.70 daily lower bb area with same trail stop. Shorts trigger on bounces towards the 84.90-85.20 area with a - .78 trail stop above the daily 5 period ma. for a daily inverse pup breakdown to the 82.80 trendline.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

LVS – 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs
GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50
BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 117.20, 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.
FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs

Econ Reports:
Feb 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec
0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
Feb 10 10:00 JOLTS - Job Openings Dec
4.972M
Feb 11 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 02/07
NA NA 1.3%
Feb 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/07
NA NA 6.333M
Feb 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan
NA NA -$10.3B
Feb 12 08:30 Initial Claims 02/07
285K 285K 278K
Feb 12 08:30 Continuing Claims 1/31
2375K 2405K 2400K
Feb 12 08:30 Retail Sales Jan
-0.2% -0.5% -0.9%
Feb 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan
0.5% -0.5% -1.0%
Feb 12 10:00 Business Inventories Dec
0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 12 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 02/07
NA NA -115 bcf
Feb 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan
NA NA -1.2%
Feb 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan
NA NA -0.1%
Feb 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment Feb
100.0 98.5 98.1

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket: HAS, DO, :LGND, CYOU, SOHU, BWP, L, MCY, EXXI: postmarket: AMKR, MERU, NEWP, AMAG, RLD, TDW, COUP, GSM, CSC, RDUS, NTES
Tues: premarket: KO, OMC, KKR, OFC, HOT, SAVE, NILE, ALLT, SALE, CVS,MWW, REGN, CDW, SFUN, TAP, CMCM, DF, ACM: postmarket: FTI, SGMO, CERN, FWRD, CAP, FSRV, USNA, XOOM, AKAM, CRL, LOCK, SCI, ATEN, TRMB, TSRA, WU, RKUS, RLOC, PXD, GNW, GHDX, JIVE, PAYC, ELON, VSAT, INGN
Wed: premarket: PEP, ARMH, MOS, MDLZ, RTI, TWX, WCG, AOL, GNRC, SPNS, EZCH, MRKT, EGRX: postmarket: QDEL, CAKE, EFX, SCSS, CRAY, PNRA, ACHC, BIDU, HOS, MET, SPRT, TSO, FEYE, TRIP, TTGT, CSOD, HIVE, IO, LPSN, STMP, TSLA, WFM, Z, AMBR, DIOD, NTWK, NVDA, CSCO, NTAP, AMAT, CPA
Thurs: premarket: ORB, LPNT, SKYW, AVP, DBD, GNC, INCY, RDN, TOWR, VNTV, WWE, TYPE, LNCE, MPEL, OWW, WWAV, FLO, HIMX, RWLK, IOX, MANU: postmarket: LOGM, QLIK, GFIG, DLR, KONA, KRFT, MOBL, SFLY, TRLA, BYD, COLM, ELLI, GRPN, WRPT, MGI, AIG, BFAM, ALNY, WWWW, SNOC, GUID, KING, WAGE, ZNGA, CYBR, LF, PRSS
Friday: premarket: WFC, IPG, RRGB, CPN, MT

Earnings season continues forward this week as the weekly and monthly SPY lie in early make or breaks awaiting how the daily SPY will play out. The SPY attempted to break the symmetrical triangle on Friday and got pushed back down yet still above the upper trendline. The question is if the reinforcements from the bulls come charging in next week off the cluster of bumpers in the 204s for a mini pup or erosion takes out the supports to peak and cross down the daily stochastics for an oscillation move down. Allocate and pace accordingly! Cya in the Pit! – J

* Check for weekly and daily blog updates with charts and analysis of our trades every morning at http://www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com

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** For an explanation on mini pups check here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEsN2a-msBw&feature=related

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