27 Apr Weekly Notes for Apr 27th-May 1st, 2015
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Total Weekly P/L: - $1,908
Total Monthly Profit: + $4,894
Total Yearly Profit: + $22,900
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SPY triggered a wide time frame perfect storm last week composed of the daily, weekly and monthly double barrel pups. The daily upper bbs sit at 213.43. The 212.25 is the all time highs, 212.67 fib, 213.43 daily upper bbs and 214.40 price reversal zone. The daily 5 period moving average support sits at 210.57.
SPY closed with an identical doji at same price level seen on 2/25/2015 charts. We will look for a breakout attempt this week for a targeted move to the upper fib range and daily upper bbs. Last time we tested this area, the market peaked off 202.25 before selling down to 203. As I’ve said many times, the bulls aren’t anxious to buy breakouts but are trying to catch the reversion dips. However, since this is a perfect storm breakout, expect the all time highs to get tested. If the SPY manages to spike to the 214.40s, then we will looking for exhaustion shorts off that area.
Earnings season continues to march forward heavily this week.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
217.26 – daily fib (1.618 PRZ)
215.60 – daily fib (1.414 PRZ)
214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)
213.32 – daily upper bbs
212.67 – fib
212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger
211.66 - daily doji
211.31 - fib
210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1
210.58 - fib
209.74 - fib
209.14 – Super Fib
208.81 - fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER/weekly 5pd ma
208.18 – fib/weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.22 – Super fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2
206.75 – Super Fib/monthly 5pd ma
207.25 – weekly 15 period ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.86 – Super fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
202.50 – daily lower bbs
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
MSFT Short – MSFT had a monster squeeze Friday on earnings. Upside fibs sit at 48.29, 48.92 and 50.05. Downside fibs sit at 47.93, 46.75 and 46.26. Shorts trigger on a 47.70 break (60 minute MSH) with a 48.06 trail stop and re-entry consideration at the 48.29/48.92 fib both with .31 trail stops for a tightening back to daily upper bbs and super fib area 46.60-46.30 area.
AKAM Short/Long – AKAM grinded clear through our 73.50 target on the long from last week’s report. Friday formed a bearish engulfing candle and a daily MSH after peaking off 76.70. The daily 5 period ma sits at 75.35 and daily MSH trigger technically sits at 75.56. This is stinky 5s levels which can make things tricky. A break under the 75.14 level triggers the reversion SHORT, with a 75.76 trail stop, for a tightening back towards the 74.55-74.35 area and secondary targets at the 73.60s-73.40s. Longs would trigger on a breakout through 76.40 or a pullback to 72.35. Earnings due out Tuesday premarket.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20
MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: PLT, BPOP, SILC, SOHU, TEN, ACW: postmarket: PWRD, TCS, PCL, SIMO, AAPL, GGP, SWFT, OSTK, PMCS, RCII, JLL, CDNS, OLN, ABX, SSW, QTS, UHS
Tues: premarket: AVU, WAT, AKS, AMG, GLW, OSK, PFE, AUO, COH, F, JBLU, VLO, HMC, IDXX, BP, FLWS, AET, CARB, CNC, ST, TWIN, UPS, BSX, CMI, WHR, CMI, FSRV, CPLA, WWW, YNDX, TMUS, IPGP, ECL, NEO, UTHR, SERV, CAS, MCGC: postmarket: HELE, AMCC, IGT, OTEX, X, WDC, AZPN, CGI, CRUS, DHT, HLIT, NATI, CLF, CALX, CBL, IACI, MWA, RNG, RSYS, ULTI, WYNN. GPRE, BWLD, GPRO, TPX, TWTR, IPHI, PNRA, KRFT, LOGM, WSH, INAP, ESRX, HAWK, KBR, BOOM
Wed: premarket: MWV, NSC, ADT, GD, IP, MA, HUM, LFUS, SLAB, SNCR, HOT, PCG, TWX, WOOF, HERO, WM, DX, GRMN, HLT, IDCC, LINE, LL, AMED, REV: postmarket: INGN, DOX, CACI, CAVM, CMPR, FLEX, HOLX, ISIL, SGI, TTEK, ELX, MTM, RVBD, SIGI, ATW, AFFX, FORM, GLUU, MA, IBT, O, SFLY, MAR, SSS, TILE, WMB, EQIX, TX, DYAX, ELGX, STAA, MOMO
Thurs: premarket: CY, NTCT, STM, ABC, CRS, NOK, RDWR, ROK, CAH, CELG, CL, COP, LLL, POT, PSX, RYL, TDY, TWC, VIAB, WRLD, XOM, TEVA, MNRC, MOS, ACOR, GNC, INCY, MFA, MINI, VNTV, WWE, PES, WLT, HUN, IMAX, IDA, AVP, IRM, TFX, AMT, CLDX, STRZA, ACTW, IRDM, SNAK, TASR, VICL, WMAR, ENDP, MYL, OMG, CTCM, MVIS, SKYS: postmarket: BMTC, SWKS, ARAY, CLMS, EZPW, POL, HTCH, TER, ABAX, CTCT, EPAY, JDSU, LEG, MATW, MITK, SCSC, SRDX, TUES, V, LLNW, TNAV, OMCL, GILD, BCOV, EXPE, UTI, CAP, SGEN, TRMB, QU, FEYE, AIG, BCOR, BFAM, BYD, COLM, ELLI, MOBL, WWWW, SKYW, COHU, ROVI, DWA, IART, TNDM, TXTR, SYNC, CROX, CUBE, CMLD, NTRI, FISH, SKUL, LOCO, JUNO
Fri: premarket: WY, CVX, BERY, KCG, LM, MOSY, NWL, CBM, LPNT, ITT, RUTH, VFC, XLS, SUP
We have a ton of earnings reports this week. We have adjusted the sizing with the alerts to accommodate the noticeably thinner liquidity so members have an easier time with fills. The new model will stick to a 70k margin account with more scaling of smaller pieces to adjust to the liquidity. Please allocate accordingly and pace properly. I will be out on Monday, April 27th, 2015. Cya in the Pit (Tuesday)! - Jea
* Check for weekly and daily blog updates with charts and analysis of our trades every morning at http://www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com
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