22 Feb Week Ahead Report for Feb 23rd-27th, 2015
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SPY chopped in basically a 1 point range most of last week from 209-210. Most mornings opened with a 60 minute mini inverse pup that got reversed by mid day as SPY grinded on most days towards the 210 area before gapping down the next morning and repeating the process. This was until Friday afternoon when news broke of a ‘deal’ with Greece and the EU, which still needs to be voted on by Greek parliament and proposal delivered by Monday. The news was a catalyst to further drive up the SPY as the daily stochastics ride the 100 band closing at all time highs again 111.24. News out of Greece and the EU early in the week is a wildcard.
Key fibs and market structure levels on the SPY are at 212.67, 209.74, 208.55 (Weekly 5pd ma), 207.86, 207.24 swing high, 206.58, 206.42, 204.94/204.87, 203.50, 202.73- MSL gap fill, 201.94, 198.61 fib, 196.58.
The monthly and weekly stochastics have crossed back up with the next fib at 212.67, daily upper bbs at 214.90 and 218.55 for weekly upper bbs.
SPY daily stochastic are at 98 bands with daily 5 period ma at 210.24. This break could trigger a parabolic squeeze to the upper bumpers before a larger retracement.
Earnings season continues this week. Liquidity has been tough lately so allocation has to be a top priority moving forward.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
GIS Long – Weekly and monthly are both forming pup breakouts as their respectively stochastics crossed back up along with the daily stochastic. The 5 period moving average supports sit at 52.92, 52.79 and 53.23 on the daily, monthly and weekly (overlapped with daily 50 period) moving averages. Longs trigger either on a pullback to the daily 5 period ma 53.10-52.90 with an ADD if it slips to the 52-51.94 fib area and stop at 51.45 with upside targets to 54.90-55.40 range and secondary upside to 56.20-57.50 area or a 54.06 gap fill breakout with a daily 50 period ma break trail stop under 53 and same aforementioned upside targets.
LVS Long/Short – The casino sector has had a nice rally including MGM and WYNN peers. WYNN is sitting right at the daily trendline resistance at 159 BUT forming a possible daily mini pup. LVS has a fib resistance at 61.50 and a .786 fib at 62.50 price resistance zone, which could be the CD leg of a daily bearish gartley which triggers on a daily market structure high trigger on a re-break back under 61.50 LVS has daily upper bbs at 63. It’s important to watch WYNN if it breaks out on daily mini pup or rejects off the trendline, then LVS LONG triggers on a 61 break long or a 60 break short as it is hovering on the daily 5 period ma at 60.44, use a -.56 trail on either side.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs
GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50
BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 129.46, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs
Econ Reports This Week
Feb 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan
4.95M 4.95M 5.04M
Feb 24 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec
4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Feb 24 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb
98.0 99.3 102.9
Feb 25 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 02/21
NA NA -13.2%
Feb 25 10:00 New Home Sales Jan
450K 471K 481K
Feb 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/21
NA NA -7.716M
Feb 26 08:30 Initial Claims 02/21
295K 290K 283K
Feb 26 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/14
2400K 2400K 2425K
Feb 26 08:30 CPI Jan
-0.7% -0.6% -0.4%
Feb 26 08:30 Core CPI Jan
0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Feb 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jan
-1.0% 1.8% -3.3% -3.4%
Feb 26 08:30 Durable Goods –ex transportation Jan
0.1% 0.6% -0.8%
Feb 26 09:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Dec
NA NA 0.8%
Feb 26 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 02/21
NA NA -111 bcf
Feb 27 08:30 GDP - Second Estimate Q4
2.0% 2.1% 2.6%
Feb 27 08:30 GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Feb 27 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb
57.0 58.0 59.4
Feb 27 10:00 Michigan Sentiment - Final Feb
93.6 93.8 93.6
Feb 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan
5.0% 2.2% -3.7%
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: DISH, PACD: postmarket: ESRX, AGU, AXTI, THC, DEPO, TRAK, PDLI, KANG
Tues: premarket: CMCSA, EXAS, UTHR, ALKS, CRNT, AMT, EXLS, MNKD, IART, RLGY, KATE, WEN, WIN, M, HD, CBRL, DAKT, PLL, TOL, SAFM: postmarket: CLGX, CBI, HWAY, MMSI, BOOM, DWA, NUVA, AWAY, JAZZ, PZZA, FSLR, INFI, TNDM, SINA, CPRT, DY, HPQ, NDSN, FRPT
Wed: premarket: LL, JAKK, SODA, STRZA, BSFT, LAMR, LOW, TGT, DLTR, ISLE: postmarket: FARO, ELGX, MELI, STAA, SYNC, IL, WDAY, QLTY, MDVN, SFM, RIG, CRM, LB, JUNO
Thurs: premarket: HAWK, LTM, ICON, IRDM, IQNT, TASR, BUD, AKRX, IPCC, DDD, GOGO, SEAS, IOC, CYBX, MBLY, STOR, TD: postmarket: IM, CROX, UHS, GFIG, WTW, AEGR, SREV, SPRT, BIO, CERS, ICPT, MDRX, MNST, OLED, WIFI, UNXL, HALO, RMTI, JCP, YOKU, TUBE, ARUN, ROST, GPS, ADSK, SPLK, BLOX, OVTI, WG
Fri: premarket: HMSY, RDC, KERX, GLO, RDC, ISIS
Earnings season continues but liquidity will be an issue as the lower tier stocks tend to have less volume normally unless there are very large gaps. As we approach the end of February, watch for laggards that are just starting to cross back up (absent news). Let’s take is carefully this week, cya in the room! – J
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