08 Mar Week Ahead Notes for March 9th-14th, 2015
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SPY finally sold off after triggering the daily market structure high on the 210.59 trigger with the daily mini inverse pup through 80 band leans that sliced through the 209.75 and 207.86 fibs. The weekly SPY now has a MSH trigger on a 207.09 breakdown. There is a are triple support convergence area at 206.10 composed of the daily 50, weekly 15 and monthly 5 period moving averages. The daily 5 period moving average resistance is sloping down at 210.26.
Here are the key areas on the SPY to watch this week
212.67 - fib
211.66 - daily doji
210.59 - daily MSH trigger
209.74 - fib
209.35 - daily 15pd ma
207.86 - fib
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger
206.10 - * triple support * monthly 5pd ma, weekly 15 period ma and daily 50 pd ma
204.24 - fib
Keep an eye on the 206.30-205.90 area for reversion bounces if we test there this week. A reversion to the 5 period moving averages is normal after tagging a key bumper area. Either the 5 period ma will meet the price or price will coil back to the 5 period ma.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
VIPS Long – VIPS has been very resilient since the earnings gap. The daily is just starting to cross back up on a daily pup breakout and weekly mini pup attempts. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 25.11-24.89 area and an add at the 24.16-23.91 area for upside to the weekly upper bbs 26.40-26.85 range.
JNPR Short/Long – JNPR coiled strong off the monthly 5/50 period ma supports area 22.93 and 22.88 area and daily 50 period ma at 22.95 triple support to the daily 5 period ma 23.56. The weekly stochastic turned down with 5 period ma 23.79. Initial shorts trigger at the weekly 5period ma range 23.70-23.90 area with a 24.17 trail stop for mini inverse pup back down to 23.15-22.90 triple support area. Longs would trigger at the 23.09-22.89 area with a 22.48 trail stop as gap gets violated for tightening back to the daily 5pd ma 23.40-23.60 area with secondary target at 24.
COH Short – 41.25 break triggers the weekly MSH with 41.11 as the weekly 5 period ma. 42.34 is daily 5 period ma. 40.27 is the monthly 5pd ma support. Shorts trigger either at 42.15-42.30 or on a 41.24 break, but with a - .43 trail stop for the monthly 15/5 period ma targets 40.30s and 39.40s. .
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs
GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50
BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs
Econ Reports This Week
Mar 10 10:00 JOLTS - Job Openings Jan
NA NA 5.028M
Mar 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan
-0.3% -0.1% 0.1%
Mar 11 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/07
NA NA 0.1%
Mar 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/07
NA NA 10.303M
Mar 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb
NA NA -$193.5B
Mar 12 08:30 Initial Claims 03/07
315K 306K 320K
Mar 12 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/28
2425K 2421K 2421K
Mar 12 08:30 Retail Sales Feb
0.0% 0.4% -0.8%
Mar 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
0.3% 0.6% -0.9%
Mar 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
NA NA -1.0%
Mar 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb
NA NA -0.7%
Mar 12 10:00 Business Inventories Jan
-0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Mar 12 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 03/07
NA NA -228 bcf
Mar 13 08:30 PPI Feb
0.4% 0.3% -0.8%
Mar 13 08:30 Core PPI Feb
0.1% 0.1% -0.1%
Mar 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment Mar
95.0 95.8 95.4
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: POZN, WUBA, BITA: postmarket: WPRT, MM, XOXO, URBN, KANG, QIHU, PWRD, VNET, UNFI, CASY, IDT
Tues: premarket: LMIA, RDUS, BKS, ASPS: postmarket: BOOM, ONTY, SINA, WB, ALOG, SURG, FCEL, SURG, PAY, HABT
Wed: preamarket: FSYS, EXPR, VRA, BLT, WIRES: postmarket: XOMA, IPAR, SCLN, XNET, KKD, CMTL, MW, WG, SHAK
Thurs: premarket: GLP, RGEN, IDRA, PGNX, PETX, SNSS, QIWI, RICE, LEAK, CSTM, JASO, BONT, PLCE, SMRT, DANG, DG, MTN, HOV: postmarket: SGMG, JMBA, OMED, FF, LOCO, APP, OMER, FTD, RMAX, STRI, YOKU, MFRM, ARO, ULTA, ZUMZ, IRET, PPHM
Fri: premarket: MEA, EBIX, BKE, ANN, HIBB, CTRN
Be aware of the dry climate coming in sooner rather than later during the day. This is where correlations become unbalanced as liquidity and volume dry up. The opening action and possible end of day action is where there is most cover with participants. Watching to see at which area the SPY makes a reversion coil. These have to be taken with precaution when shorting as they have been known to continue to grind and squeeze, but I assume bears will be more careful on each bounce attempt waiting for exhaustion rather than stepping right into them which is what could actually prolong this sell-off. Time will tell, cya in the Pit! – J
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