28 Mar Week Ahead Notes for Mar 30th-Apr 3rd, 2015
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Total Weekly Profit: + $2,046 (3/23-3/27/2015)
Total Monthly Profit: + $9,378
Total Yearly Profit: + $18,166
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SPY went into last week with expectations of a daily mini pup amidst a complacent sentiment that set-up a stealth daily bearish seed wave under 209 and triggered with a 5-minute bearish seed wave and perfect storm breakdown under 208.57 trigger that collapsed it back down near the 204 support area before trying to bounce into the end of the week. Friday’s close set the daily market structure low trigger at 205.96 break. The accuracy of the 5-min bearish seed wave on Wednesday and then the 5-min bullish seed wave was uncanny.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
212.67 - fib
211.66 - daily doji
211.31 – weekly MSL trigger
210.59 - daily MSH trigger
209.74 - fib
209.21 – Super Fib
208.02 – weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger
206.97 – daily 50 period ma
206.50 – weekly 15 period ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
204.94 - fib
204.24 – fib
203.50 – fib
203.17 - daily lower Bollinger bands
The 204.24 fib support on the SPY has been a significant are and would be the key breakdown area that could lean down to the 202.50-199.50 daily bearish seed wave targets. While the daily stochastics are down, the deeper underlying threat is the possible weekly and monthly dual mini inverse pups that are forming. The monthly 5 period ma sits at 205.72 with stochastic mini inverse pup attempt sitting at the 80 band. Note that the monthly stochastic hasn’t been under the 80 band since 2012 (when SPY was trading in the 140s). The daily stochastics are still down which keeps the wider time frames active. The daily attempt to form a market structure low above 205.96 will be the first indication of a reversion or flat out breakdown. The upside if the daily MSL triggers would be the weekly 15 period ma at 206.50, 206.97 daily 50 period ma and ultimately the daily 5 period moving average at 207.12 (which can update lower by the day). Interesting to note that 207.20 was the prior daily MSL trigger therefore would be the bear’s line in the sand on the reversion. If they reject the daily 5 period ma and break through the 203.94, then a massive perfect storm breakdown can form that includes the weekly and the massive monthly mini inverse pups towards that 202.50-199.50 seed wave target range. On the flipside, if the bulls are able to grind back up through 209.21 super fib, then they can stave off the assault. Tuesday’s close will be important.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
WUBA Long– WUBA has a weekly mini pup with upper bbs at 52.65 on both the daily and weekly charts. Longs trigger on a pullback to 48.80-48.60s with a 46.90 trail stop or above 50.33 with a 49.22 trail stop for upside targets to the 52-52.70 (.786 reversal zone on weekly gartley) and secondary upside targets to the 53.70-55.80 and best case 59.09 (1.618 of weekly seed wave).
IPI Short – IPI formed a daily MSH trigger under 11.80. The daily 5 period ma sits at 11.65. Shorts trigger at 11.58 for downside target to 11.18-10.92 and secondary targes at 10.65-10.45 and best case 9.60-9.20 range. Keep an eye on MOS and POT leaders.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: AIR, CALM: postmarket: PWRD, MDLY
Tues: premarket: MOV, CONN, SAIC: posmarket: PRGN, IMGN, RGSE, FRPT, WG, LNDC
Wed: premarket: MON, UNF: postmarket: SPWH, SIGM, PRGS
Thurs: premarket: PERY, DANG, SEAC, KMX, GBX, AZZ, OMN: postmarket: MU, FC, HGR
The monthly close has some real significance this week. Expect the unexpected. Earnings season kicks off the week after next, pace yourself and allocate the ammo carefully. Cya in the Pit! - J - * I will be out of the chatroom on Thursday, April 2nd, 2015
* Check for weekly and daily blog updates with charts and analysis of our trades every morning at http://www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com
** Follow me on https://twitter.com/JeaYu21
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