31 May Week Ahead Notes for June 1st-5th, 2015
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Total Weekly P/L: + $2,467
Total Monthly P/L: + $5,891
Total Yearly Profit: + $29,140
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SPY triggered a daily mini inverse pup last week as it continued to reject off the daily 5 and 15 period period moving averages, which now sit at 212 and 15 period at 211.95 respectively. Technically the daily SPY is still in a make or break until the 5 period ma crossed down through the 15 period ma. The next lower support sits at the 209.86 daily 50 period ma. The weekly chart has a possible stochastic peak under the 5 period ma at 211.78 with15 period ma at 209.76, both of which overlap with fibs at 211.31 and 209.94 (pls see the important fib levels below). The weekly is in a make or break. The monthly SPY is still above the 5 period ma at 207.23 with a stalled stochastic. This makes the monthly 5 period ma the key coil area as it can form a mini pup off a pullback there. The various gaps on the daily SPY make it really tricky to identify textbook market structure signals but the 212.50 seems sufficient. The key break of 210.58 can re-trigger the prior daily bearish seed wave towards the 210.27, 209.44 and 209.16 super fib with a key bearish seed wave re-trigger on 208.55 break, which then sets up the move to the monthly 5 period ma test. That’s the bearish case of course. If the bulls managed to base back above the 112.75 area then a potential daily pretzel pup can form with upside back to new highs. There is a macro wildcard with Greece this week. Their bond payment is due in June and any news can have a material effect on the SPY.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
217.26 – daily fib (1.618 PRZ)
215.60 – daily fib (1.414 PRZ)
214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)
213.78 – All time high
212.67 – fib
212.50 – daily MSH
212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger
211.66 - daily doji
211.31 - fib
210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1
210.58 – fib
209.86 – daily 50 period ma
209.74 - fib
209.44 – Super fib
209.16 – Super Fib
208.81 - fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER/weekly 5pd ma
208.18 – fib/weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.22 – Super fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2
206.75 – Super Fib/monthly 5pd ma
207.25 – weekly 15 period ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.86 – Super fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
202.50 – daily lower bbs
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
FSL Long – FSL has a perfect storm . Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 44.70-44.80 area with a tight trail stop under 44.19 for upside to the 45.80-46.10 daily upper bbs and 48.10 monthly upper bbs.
FEYE Long – FEYE triggers a daily mini pup on a breakout above 46.76 or pullback to 45.75 daily 5 period ma with a - .65 trail stop respectively for 47.25-47.60 initial targets and 47.90-48.50 secondary targets.
WFM Short – WFM forming a daily inverse pup on the market or break under 42.19. The weekly has a mini inverse pup under the 43.47 fib. Shorts trigger on a reversion to 42-42.20 with a 42.85 stop stop for a breakdown to the 40.17 fib.
KANG Short - KANG peaked off the 21.26 weekly butterfly 1,272 fib 21.26. The daily 1.618 fib sits at 21.72. Daily is awaiting the MSH trigger to set in. Weekly upper bbs at 19.80 and daily at 20.45. Shorts are triggered at 21.50-22 area with a –1.75 trail stop for targets at 19.60-19.30 and secondary targets at 18.60-17.90.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20, 66.19
MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: CMGE: postmarket: PVH, QUNR
Tues: premarket: MDT, CBRL, DAKT, SOL, DG, CONN: postmarket: AMBA, ABM, GWRE, ASNA, VNEM, NCS, GES, PRGN, GIII
Wed: premarket: VRA :postmarket: LF, DATE, DRC, GOMO, MFRM, FIVE, VRNT, APIC
Thurs: premarket: SHLD, NAV, CYBX, NAV, CIEN, JOY, MIK: postmarket: DMND, IDT, ALOG, PAY,CMTL, ZOES, ZUMZ, VNCE, UTIW, SEAC
Fri: premarket: YGE
Greece will be the big headline macro wildcard this week. We still have some pretty good earnings reports this week. Be aware of the daily make or break on the SPY and that 210.58 key trigger if it cracks. Pace yourself and allocate properly. Cya in the Pit! - J
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