19 Jul Week Ahead Notes for July 20th-24th, 2015
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Total Weekly P/L: + $3,286
Total Monthly P/L: + $7,017
Total Yearly Profit: + $47,410
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SPY ramped hard off the 204.12 fib back towards the 212.67 fib area heading into earnings with a gap literally every day as stochastic made a full oscillations back up through the 90 bands into overbought territory on 8 consecutive higher highs. The bounce appears overbought but has the potential to squeeze up to the 214.40-215.60 price reversal zones if they continue to make higher highs. The closest market structure high trigger would only come on a day with a lower high under 212.55. If that day happens, then a break below the low of that day would be the daily MSH trigger. The tricky part here is that earnings season goes VERY heavy this week with a number of key bellweather stocks reporting including AAPL on Tuesday, which weighs heavily on the DIA, SPY and QQQ index etfs. A nominal reversion to the daily 5 period moving average and doji gap fill at 211.28 can be expected. Earnings take center stage this week.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
217.26 – daily fib (1.618 PRZ)
215.60 – daily fib (1.414 PRZ)
214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)
213.78 – All time high
212.67 – fib
212.50 – daily MSH
211.66 - daily doji
211.43 – daily MSL
211.31 – fib
211.28 – daily doji GAP FILL
210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1
210.58 – fib
210.27 – daily 50 period ma
209.74 - fib
209.58 – weekly 5 period ma
209.44 – Super fib
209.16 – Super Fib
208.81 - fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER
208.18 – fib
207.86 – fib
207.22 – Super fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2
206.75 – Super Fib
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.86 – Super fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
201.61 – Super fib
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
NKE Long – NKE headfaked a daily MSH trigger 111.67. A break of the 113.10 sets up the perfect storm breakout on the daily, weekly and monthly mini pups.with upper targets at 114.39, 115.97 and 117 with a trail stop under the 111.50.
EBAY Short – EBAY closed at the weekly and monthly upper bbs at 66.25. 66.95 and 65.90 are strong fibs with tweezer-ish tops around 66.72. EBAY has always gotten a reversion on the monthly upper bbs. Shorts trigger at 66.85-67.35 area with a 67.86 trail stop for a reversion back to the daily 5 period ma 64.70 area initial target and 63.70s secondary targets on the weekly 5 period ma.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
FIT – 50.54, 48.40/48.20, 46.95, 46.05, 44.38, 43.67, 43.05, 42.68, 42.01, 41.88 super fib, 40.55 super fib, 39.51, 38.70 super fib
M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20, 66.19
MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: postmarket: CALM, HAL, HAS, MS, GPC, EXAS: postmarket: BMI, BRO, CNI, HLX, HSTM, HXL, IBM, RMBS, SANM, STLF, ZION, WWD
Tues: premarket: SAP, AMTD, ASTE, DOV, HOG, LMT, OMC, RF, UTX, NVR, UTX, VZ, INFY, WWW: postmarket: LLTC, PKG, ACE, CMG, ILMN, IBKR, ISRG, IRBT, ILMN, MANH, VASC, VMW, ISRG, MANH, YHOO, ZIXI, EXPO, MSFT, AAPL, GPRO, HAWK, RNST
Wed: premarket: CHKP, ARMH, JAKK, NTRS, ABT, AN, ANGI, BABY, EMC, KO, SIX, STJ, SILC, ACAT: postmarket: SNDK, AXP, FTNT, INFN, MLNX, URI, AF, CAKE, FFIV, FTK, LOGI, LVS, MKSI, QCOM, SGMO, SCSS, PLXS, PLCM, SLM, TSCO, TXN, TYL, WFT, XLNX, NEM, QDEL, CRUS, EGHT, MOSY
Thurs: premarket: RCI, RCL, KMB, UA, MCD, ADPT, AEP, ASPS, CAM, CAB, CAT, CAM, GM, GMT, JNS, KKR, LAZ, LLY, LUV, MMM, NDAQ, PENN, PENN, SFE, SYNT, UAL, OSTK, MRGE, CELG, CY, CTCM, IMAX, MINI, STM, CMCSA, AMAG, QSII: postmarket: PFPT, INFA, T, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, BLDR, CBI, COF, CPHD, DGII, ETFC FSL, GIMO, HWAY, JNPR, MKTO, MXIM, SBUX, SPSC, SPNC, SSD, VRSN, WIRE, PMCS, LOGM, NANO, FLEX, ABAX, ATHN, BYD, MITK, SWKS, V, LSCC, TRIP, STAG, TRIP, CA, DECK
Fri: premarket: ABBV, JCI, AAL, AAL, BIIB, COG, LEA, XRX, BPOP, TEN, OCR, PB, STT, SAVE, VFC
Watch for gap fills on reversions. Lots of bellweather earnings reports due out this week. Make sure to pay attention to the fibs as I post them on my twitter. Allocation and pacing is top priority.
Cya in the Pit! - J