Week Ahead Notes for July 13th-July 17th, 2015

13 Jul Week Ahead Notes for July 13th-July 17th, 2015

Hi Gang,

            Follow me on Twitter @JeaYu21 https://twitter.com/JeaYu21   (This is where I post my Fib charts)

Follow the daily trading blog at www.undergroundtrader.wordpress.com for daily updated analysis of trades and tracking profit/loss totals:

Total Weekly P/L:      + $1,843

Total Monthly P/L:      + $2,837

Total Yearly Profit:         + $43,191

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SPY peaked out 3 times near that 208.18 fib and daily 15 period moving average resistance. The daily stochastic are crossing down the 20 band to set-up a possible inverse pup on a break through the daily 5 period ma at 206.33.   The weekly already has a mini inverse pup with 5 period ma resistances at 209.09 and 50 period ma at 204.65 and 203.79 near the 203.50 fib. Earnings season kicks on this week so that will be our main focus. Keep an eye on the Fibs below, especially the super fibs, as reversion levels. With the S&P e-minis gapped down –10, it will be interesting to see how the fibs come into play. The daily 5 period ma will be an important line in the sand 206.33.   If they bounce but reject off that level, then the SPY sets up for a double barrel inverse pup with the daily inverse pup and mini inverse pup with the weekly mini inverse pup which points to a re-test of the 204.70s-204.20s lows and a breakdown of supports leads to the 203.50 fib-202.30 daily lower bbs and 201.61 super fib.

Important SPY bumpers this week:

217.26 – daily fib (1.618 PRZ)

215.60 – daily fib (1.414 PRZ)

214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)

213.78 – All time high

212.67 – fib

212.50 – daily MSH

212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger

211.66 - daily doji

11.43 – daily MSL

211.31 - fib

210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1

210.58 – fib

210.10 – daily 50 period ma

209.74 - fib

209.50/209.84 – Monthly 5 period ma on mini pup/Weekly5pd ma m.o.b.

209.44 – Super fib

209.16 – Super Fib

208.81 - fib


208.18 – fib

207.86 – fib

207.38 – daily lower bbs

207.22 – Super fib

207.20 – daily MSL trigger

207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2

206.75 – Super Fib

205.96 – daily MSL trigger

205.05 – Daily fib

205.86 – Super fib

205.05 - fib

204.94 – fib

204.21 – Super Fib

203.50 – fib

202.30 – Daily lower bbs

201.61 – Super fib

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

DRI Long – DRI has a perfect storm breakout on the daily , weekly and monthly about to cross up.   The weekly 5 period ma sits at 70.48 and deflected the MSH breakdown attempt at 69.92. The daily 5 period ma sits at 71.47 with upper bbs at 74.13.   Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 71.30-71.10 area or a bounce back up through the 71.50 area with a trail an ADD at 70.50s and trail stop under 69.71 for perfect storm continuation towards the 73.25-73.75 area.

YELP Short – YELP has been in a solid breakdown since word got out that it was not able to find buyers.   The daily has been trying to bounce off the 34.60 area but hitting daily 5 period ma resistance rejections off the 35.75 area. The weekly lower bbs are at 35.34 resistances. Shorts trigger on reversions to 35.50-35.80 area with a 36.75 trail stop for downside target of the 32.86 fib.

M Short – M formed a daily mini inverse pup on the rejections off daily 5pd ma at 66.78.   Shorts trigger on a break through the monthly 5 period ma at 66.08 for initial leans to the 65.60s-65.30s and 2ndcary targets near 64.70s-64.40s stinky 5s levels.

WBA Short – WBA has a 1.27 fib at 96.05. Shorts trigger around 95.80-96.10 area with an ADD at 97.20-97.60 area with a 98.12 trail stop for an exhaustion reversion back down to the 93.85, 92.84 and 92 fib target areas.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

FIT – 38.70 super fib

M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20, 66.19

MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45

MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86

POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80

LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.

FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42

Econ Reports This Week

Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun
NA NA $70.5B
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun
NA NA 1.2%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
NA NA 1.0%
Jul 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
NA NA 0.7%
Jul 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun
NA NA 0.0%
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May
NA NA 0.4%
Jul 15 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/11
NA NA 4.6%
Jul 15 08:30 PPI Jun
NA NA 0.5%
Jul 15 08:30 Core PPI Jun
NA NA 0.1%
Jul 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jul
NA NA -2.0
Jul 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jun
NA NA -0.2%
Jul 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun
NA NA 78.1%
Jul 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/11
NA NA 0.384M
Jul 15 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jul
Jul 16 08:30 Initial Claims 07/11
NA NA 297K
Jul 16 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/04
NA NA 2334K
Jul 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul
NA NA 15.2
Jul 16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Jul
NA NA 59
Jul 16 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 07/11
NA NA 91 bcf
Jul 16 16:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows May
NA NA $53.9B
Jul 17 08:30 CPI Jun
NA NA 0.4%
Jul 17 08:30 Core CPI Jun
NA NA 0.1%
Jul 17 08:30 Housing Starts Jun
NA NA 1036K
Jul 17 08:30 Building Permits Jun
NA NA 1275K
Jul 17 10:00 Mich Sentiment Jul
NA NA 96.1

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: postmarket: OZRK

Tues: premarket:   AIR, FAST, JPM, JNJ, WFC, NORM: postmarket: CSX, ADTN, YUM, RNST, PPHM

Wed: premarket:   ASML, ABC, BLK, DAL, PNC, USB: postmarket: INTC, KMI, NFLX, UFPI, WTFC, LVS

Thurs: premarket: C, BX, GS, KEY, PPG, SON, SHW, TZOO, UNH, WBS, MTG, EBAY, BBT, WINS: postmarket:   CTAS, RECN, ANGO, AMD, MAT, SLB, MBFI, GOOG

Fri: premarket: GWW, GE, HON, STI, KSU, ERIC, ALV

We have earnings season truly kicking off this week in a trickle and then full blast next week. As always, pace and allocation properly.

Cya in the Pit! - J