Week Ahead Notes for Apr 6th-Apr 10th, 2015

05 Apr Week Ahead Notes for Apr 6th-Apr 10th, 2015

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SPY was able to fend off the bears on the intra-day perfect storm breakdown. The bulls were resilient at 204.70 and grinded back up towards the 207.20 area daily msl trigger and 209.09 critical weekly MSH trigger but lost steam. Although the SPY closed at 206.44, the e-minis were trading down almost 20 handles and Dow futures down – 200 points on the jobs report release Friday morning coming in well below expectations at 126k jobs, worst number since Dec 2014, right as the futures closed at 9:15am on Friday. That would price the SPY around the 204.50s keeping the daily bearish seed wave in tact   However, we will have to see how the futures re-open Sunday evening to see if the PPT takes it back up into the Monday morning open and how they will line up into the morning session.


The monthly stochastic stalled at the 80 band with 5 period moving average at 205.70. This means if 205.70 can break then the mini inverse pup can still trigger. The same goes for the weekly 5 period moving average at 207.18 and 15 period ma at 206.48. The 5 period ma is sloping down so a resolution is nearing in the form of either a pretzel pup breakout or a mini inverse pup breakdown.

Important SPY bumpers this week:

212.67 - fib

211.66 - daily doji

211.31 – weekly MSL trigger

210.59 - daily MSH trigger

209.74 - fib

209.21 – Super Fib


208.02 – weekly 5 period ma

207.86 – fib

207.20 – daily MSL trigger

207.09 – weekly MSH trigger

206.75 – Super Fib

206.50 – weekly 15 period ma

205.96 – daily MSL trigger

205.05 – Daily fib

205.75 – fib

205.05 - fib

204.94 – fib

204.21 – Super Fib

203.50 – fib

202.50 – daily lower bbs

We noticed very strong support in light of perfect storm breakdown attempts at 204 and 205.09, which correspond with the 204.21 super fib and 205.05 daily fib.   Bottom line here is if the daily stochastic cross back down and SPY cracks the 203.80, then the bearish seed wave and perfect storm breakdown trigger for downside targets in the 202.50-199.50 range. To offset this, bulls must grind SPY back up through the 207.30-207.60 area to clear the Weekly MSH and Weekly 15 period ma and proceed to squeeze back up through the 208.60 daily MSH trigger and hold firmly into the weekly close.   We are approaching a resolution as the trading channel continues to compress.   We can only react to the range triggers either way. Earnings season is kicks off the week after next as the wet climate returns.

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

LVS Long – LVS triggers a LONG at 55.62 –55.43 area on pullbacks or 56.70 breakout to trigger a seed wave on the daily pup breakout attempt to the 59-61 target range.   Trail stops at 53.81.

M Short – M spiked on news of being a potential bidder for Belks, which spears to be an overreaction on every level but it did stir up a lot of volume on a short squeeze pulling up other stocks in the sector. Weekly upper bbs sit at 67.94 which overlaps with the 1.27 daily fib from Nov 2014 and daily upper bbs at 67.84. Shorts trigger on 15 min MSH trigger at 67.79 break with a stop above 68.22 for tightening back to the daily 5 period ma range 65.70-65.40.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86

POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80

LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.

FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket: OCN: postmarket: PWRD

Tues: premarket: ISCA, GBX: postmarket: PLAY, TISI

Wed: premarket: RAD, MSM, FDO, GPN: postmarket:: APOG. PIR, MO, RECN, MDFC, BBBY, AA

Thurs: premarket: STZ, WBA: postmarket: ANGO, PSMT, RT

Fri: premarket: AZZ

Slow week ahead for econ reports as earnings kick off the week after. Let’s see how strong the dip buyers will be on Monday as we head towards a resolution on this bearish daily seed wave. Allocate properly and pace yourself. Earnings season is around the corner. Cya in the Pit! - Jea


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