05 Apr Week Ahead Notes for Apr 6th-Apr 10th, 2015
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SPY was able to fend off the bears on the intra-day perfect storm breakdown. The bulls were resilient at 204.70 and grinded back up towards the 207.20 area daily msl trigger and 209.09 critical weekly MSH trigger but lost steam. Although the SPY closed at 206.44, the e-minis were trading down almost 20 handles and Dow futures down – 200 points on the jobs report release Friday morning coming in well below expectations at 126k jobs, worst number since Dec 2014, right as the futures closed at 9:15am on Friday. That would price the SPY around the 204.50s keeping the daily bearish seed wave in tact However, we will have to see how the futures re-open Sunday evening to see if the PPT takes it back up into the Monday morning open and how they will line up into the morning session.
The monthly stochastic stalled at the 80 band with 5 period moving average at 205.70. This means if 205.70 can break then the mini inverse pup can still trigger. The same goes for the weekly 5 period moving average at 207.18 and 15 period ma at 206.48. The 5 period ma is sloping down so a resolution is nearing in the form of either a pretzel pup breakout or a mini inverse pup breakdown.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
212.67 - fib
211.66 - daily doji
211.31 – weekly MSL trigger
210.59 - daily MSH trigger
209.74 - fib
209.21 – Super Fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER
208.02 – weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger
206.75 – Super Fib
206.50 – weekly 15 period ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.75 – fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
202.50 – daily lower bbs
We noticed very strong support in light of perfect storm breakdown attempts at 204 and 205.09, which correspond with the 204.21 super fib and 205.05 daily fib. Bottom line here is if the daily stochastic cross back down and SPY cracks the 203.80, then the bearish seed wave and perfect storm breakdown trigger for downside targets in the 202.50-199.50 range. To offset this, bulls must grind SPY back up through the 207.30-207.60 area to clear the Weekly MSH and Weekly 15 period ma and proceed to squeeze back up through the 208.60 daily MSH trigger and hold firmly into the weekly close. We are approaching a resolution as the trading channel continues to compress. We can only react to the range triggers either way. Earnings season is kicks off the week after next as the wet climate returns.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
LVS Long – LVS triggers a LONG at 55.62 –55.43 area on pullbacks or 56.70 breakout to trigger a seed wave on the daily pup breakout attempt to the 59-61 target range. Trail stops at 53.81.
M Short – M spiked on news of being a potential bidder for Belks, which spears to be an overreaction on every level but it did stir up a lot of volume on a short squeeze pulling up other stocks in the sector. Weekly upper bbs sit at 67.94 which overlaps with the 1.27 daily fib from Nov 2014 and daily upper bbs at 67.84. Shorts trigger on 15 min MSH trigger at 67.79 break with a stop above 68.22 for tightening back to the daily 5 period ma range 65.70-65.40.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: OCN: postmarket: PWRD
Tues: premarket: ISCA, GBX: postmarket: PLAY, TISI
Wed: premarket: RAD, MSM, FDO, GPN: postmarket:: APOG. PIR, MO, RECN, MDFC, BBBY, AA
Thurs: premarket: STZ, WBA: postmarket: ANGO, PSMT, RT
Fri: premarket: AZZ
Slow week ahead for econ reports as earnings kick off the week after. Let’s see how strong the dip buyers will be on Monday as we head towards a resolution on this bearish daily seed wave. Allocate properly and pace yourself. Earnings season is around the corner. Cya in the Pit! - Jea
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