12 Apr Week Ahead Notes for Apr 13th-17th, 2015
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Total Monthly Profit: + $5,967
Total Yearly Profit: + $24,083
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SPY managed to trigger a daily pretzel mini pup to grind up through the weekly MSH trigger at 207.09 and through the second daily MSH trigger at 208.59 to close at 210 just shy of the first daily MSH trigger at 210.63 and daily bearish seed wave trigger.. A break through that area will vaporize the daily bearish seed wave and likely trigger a squeeze to re-test the daily doji 211.66.
Keep in mind that the 210.30-210.60 area is also a classic double top and a daily gartley price resistance zone (PRZ) on the bearish side but a daily ascending triangle and mini pup on the bullish side with an underlying butterfly pattern.
The SPY has a daily mini pup with 5 period ma at 208.40 and upper bbs at 212.38. The weekly and monthly stochastic are still in make or breaks, which could turn back up if they close the weekly above the 210.90 area. We will watch that 210.59-to 210.84 area for exhaustion but if they stabilize above there, then expect a move towards the 211.59 critical weekly MSH trigger. If broken, could set stage for new highs as a potential daily bearish butterfly could be setting up with a PRZ at the 214.30s, which would be a great short area.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)
212.67 – fib
212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger
211.66 - daily doji
210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1
209.74 - fib
209.21 – Super Fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER
208.02 – weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2
206.75 – Super Fib
206.50 – weekly 15 period ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.75 – fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
202.50 – daily lower bbs
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
TSCO Long – TSCO has a monthly mini pup above 84.09 with a weekly make or break trying to pup above the 5pd ma at 86.85 and a daily mini pup above the 86.29. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 87.04-86.75 near the weekly 5 period ma with a 1 point stop for a move towards the 88.04 intial target and then 89 area secondary target.
TEVA Short – TEVA forms a daily MSH trigger on a 65.38 break under the 65.78 daily 5 period ma, with a 66.13 trail stop for a tightening back towards the 64.80-64.40s and secondary target at tehe daily 15 period ma at 63.52.
MOS Short – MOS has weekly 5 period ma resistance at 46.22 and weekly 50 period ma resistance at 47.12.with a daily make or break. Shorts trigger on a breakdown through 45.74 with a tight trail stop at 46.33 for downside to the 45.12-44.92. Shorts can be re-entered at 47.85-48.10 with a 48.65 stop for the same targets if MOS managed to grind back to the monthly 5 period ma.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20
MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: CBSH: postmarket: PWRD, PBY, TPLM, LAYN, OZRK
Tues: premarket: JPM, WFC, JNJ, JBHT: postmarket: CSX, DRWI, LLTC, INTC
Wed: premarket: BAC, PNC, SCHW, ASML, DAL, USB, PGR: postmarket: NFLX, KMI, SNDK, SCSS,
Thurs: premarket: C,BLK, TSM, GS, UNH, CY, PCS, KEY, TASR, GWW, SHW, ADS, PM: postmarket: AMD, SLB, AXP, NOW, MAT, NSR, CCK
Fri: premarket: GE, HON, STX, CMA
The banks and financials are kicking off the earnings this week. These can be choppy and are chock full of algos. Make sure to pace yourself properly and allocate shares properly. We have decided to keep the alerts based on a $70k margin account (for $280k intraday bp) so members can allocate shares proportionally and accordingly to their accounts and risk tolerance. This should help members better coordinate their allocations. Cya in the Pit! - Jea
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