22 Mar Weekly Notes for Mar 23rd – Mar 27th, 2015
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Total Weekly Loss: - $111 (last week 3/18-3/20/2015)
Total Monthly Profit: + $7,331
Total Yearly Profit: + $16,059
SPY powered higher on the daily mini pup last week on the FOMC statement and dovish stance on interest rates. Daily 5 period ma sits at 109.38 and 15 period ma at 208.60 and 50 period ma at 206.58. The weekly chart is in a make or break with 5 and 15 period moving averages at 209.12 and 206.17, respectively.
SPY closed under daily market structure high trigger 210.59, which was responsible for the prior sell-off. Incidentally, the 60-minute chart formed a market structure high on the Friday close but the mis-tick to 208.52 screwed up the trigger. With the weekly make or break and daily mini pup grind, this will be an interesting week which will either hold the prior daily MSH trigger and slip or look to squeeze back up towards the 212.67 fib if the 211.31 trigger on the weekly 3 candle MSL trigger.
SPY fibs and key bumpers this week:
212.67 - fib
211.66 - daily doji
211.31 – weekly MSL trigger
210.59 - daily MSH trigger
209.74 - fib
209.21 – Super Fib
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger
206.65/206.17 – monthly 5pd and weekly 15 period ma
206.58 – daily 50 period ma
204.94 - fib
204.24 - fib
203.50 – fib
203.17 - daily lower Bollinger bands
The 210.59 to 211.31 is the immediate trigger ranges to watch this week on the SPY with 209.21 as the super fib.
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
YHOO Long– YHOO has a super fib resistance at the 45.57 and gap fill at 45.85. with downside support on the daily 50 period ma at 44.98 and 5 period ma on 44.40. Longs trigger on a pullback to the daily 5 period ma 44.40s-44.60s for the daily mini pup to retest the 45.50s super fib, then 45.85 gap fill and upside at 46.75.
SBUX Reversion Short – SBUX triggers a daily MSH under 96.99 short trigger, with a -.76 trail stop, for a tightening to the daily 5 period ma at 96.20-95.80 range and secondary targets at the weekly 5pd ma near 94.
ABBV Long/Short – ABBV has had a very strong resistance at the 621-.60-62 range which rejected on Fiday again. The daily 50/5 period moving averages sit at 206.26 and 60.06. The close on Monday will determine if another market structure high triggers or daily mini pup attempts. If ABBV closes under Friday’s low then the daily MSL triggered for a tightening back to the weekly 5 period and daily 15 period ma supports at 59.16 and 58.47 respectively. Longs trigger off the Supports at 60.30s-60.05 for a bounce premise to scalp the resistance are 61.50s-62 range and secondary targets are 63.-65.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs
GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50
BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs
Econ Reports This Week
Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb
NA NA 4.82M
Mar 24 08:30 CPI Feb
NA NA -0.7%
Mar 24 08:30 Core CPI Feb
NA NA 0.2%
Mar 24 09:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Jan
NA NA 0.8%
Mar 24 10:00 New Home Sales Feb
NA NA 481K
Mar 25 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/21
NA NA -3.9%
Mar 25 08:30 Durable Orders Feb
NA NA 2.8%
Mar 25 08:30 Durable Goods –ex transportation Feb
NA NA 0.0% 0.3%
Mar 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/21
NA NA 9.622M
Mar 26 08:30 Initial Claims 03/21
NA NA 291K
Mar 26 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/14
NA NA 2417K
Mar 26 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 03/21
NA NA -45 bcf
Mar 27 08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q4
NA NA 2.2%
Mar 27 08:30 GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q4
NA NA 0.1
Mar 27 10:00 Michigan Sentiment - Final Mar
NA NA 91.
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: postmarket: APP, PRGN, PWRD, WG
Tues: premarket: HDS, HIS, GIII : postmarket: INGN, AMPH, CBK, SCS, HQY, SONC, TRQ
Wed: premarket: YGE, LDOS, FRAN, PAYX, LNN, APOL: postmarket: TCB, OTIV, PSUN, VRNT, FIVE, RHT, FUL
Thurs: premarket: MEA, DANG, FRED, MOV, SIG, LE, LULU, CAN, CAG, SCHL, WGO, CMC: postmarket: REED, SPKE, GME, RH, AIR, PRGS
Fri: premarket: BBRY, CCL, FINL
Month end window dressing can be expected especially on company guidance this week. Q1 earnings season kicks next month so manage well and spare the ammo so it can put to good use in the upcoming wet climate. Cya in the Pit – J
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If you purchased my book Way of the Trade, Trading Full Circle and DVD Short Tern Profit Hunter http://www.invest-store.com/undergroundtrader/item.php?8006857
It’s a good idea to read through and get the concept of mini pups down. The methods all revolve around that simple pattern set up on the stochastics.
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