19 Apr Jea’s Notes for Week Ahead Apt 20th-24th, 2015
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SPY continues to chop as it attempted to breakout above the 211 twice this week but lost steam as fears of another Greek default crept up again going into the weekend. The weekly 5 period moving average sits at 208.12 which happens to overlap the daily 5 period ma. Interesting to note that the weekly stochastic may be crossing back up to form a pup breakout above the 208.12 area . The monthly 5 period ma at 206 with stochastic also trying to coil off the 80 band. The daily stochastic peaked and is testing the 80 band.
The question is whether the daily stochastic crosses down through the 80 bands or stalls and form a mini pup this week. The SPY continues to chop around in that 204-211 channel which could be seen as a consolidation by the bulls and an erosion by the bears. If the stochastic slip again then watching the oscillation moves back down towards the 206-205 area. If the SPY mini pups then look for a retest of the 211s again. Eventually, we will break out of this range, question is when and which direction?
We have major earnings reports this week, which will be our main focus.
Important SPY bumpers this week:
214.40 – daily butterfly PRZ (point D = 1.27 fib level off 204.40 point A)
212.67 – fib
212.25 – All time high and daily msh stop trigger
211.66 - daily doji
210.63 - daily MSH trigger #1
209.74 - fib
209.21 – Super Fib
208.58 – DAILY BEARISH SEED WAVE TRIGGER
208.10 – weekly 5 period ma
207.86 – fib
207.20 – daily MSL trigger
207.09 – weekly MSH trigger # 2
206.75 – Super Fib
206.76 – weekly 15 period ma
206.00 – monthly 5pd ma
205.96 – daily MSL trigger
205.05 – Daily fib
205.75 – fib
205.05 - fib
204.94 – fib
204.21 – Super Fib
203.50 – fib
202.50 – daily lower bbs
<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *
*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.
PFE Long – PFE has a weekly pup breakout with 5 period ma support at 34.72. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 34.81-34.50 area with a trail stop under 34.30 for contined upside to the 35.55-35.60 range and secondary targets near 36.25-36.50.
AKAM Long – AKAM trying to form a daily mini pup with 71.64 and 71.34 as daily 5/15 period ma supports. The weekly is still in a make or break trying to for a pup above the 5pd ma at 71.67. Daily upper bbs sit at 73.50. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 71.55 to 71.30 range on the daily 5/15 period ma’s with a -. 65 trail stop for the daily mini pup to grind towards upper bbs near 73.50.
TASR Long on Pullbacks – TASR was strong last week. The daily stochastic look like they may be peaking. The 25.70 area weekly 5 period ma would be the ideal spot to nibble longs on a deep pullback with a 25.22 trail stop for potential upside to the 30 area. More aggressive longs may consider the daily 5 period ma at 27.77 area but need to keep stops quick under 27.29 in case the daily forms a mini inverse pup.
KORS Short - KORS has a perfect storm breakdown on the wider time frames with a daily inverse pup, weekly and monthly mini inverse pups. Shorts trigger at 63.30-63.50 area with an add near 64 and trail stop at 64.73 for a perfect storm down towards the daily lower bbs 61.46- 60.80 range.
Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:
M - 70.24, 69.45 wubb, 68.20
MYL – 70.11, 68.72, 67.45
MOS – 50.94, 48.67 (sf), 47.08, 45.48(sf), 43.21, 41.86
POT – 38.58, 36.76, 35.34(sf), 34.34, 33.33(sf), 31.06, 30.09, 27.80
LVS – 61.50 fib, 55.18 super fib
SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05
YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 45.57 (superfib), 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs
AAPL- 131.45, 130.69, 129.44, 128.94, 127.71, 127.15, 126.64, 125.87, 125.41, 125.24, 124.89, 123.60 -key fibs.
FB- 91.46, 89.19, 87.59, 84.58, 83.31, 82.20, 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75.53, 75.12, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs
TWTR- 58.54, 55.71, 53.72, 49.98, 48.40, 44.69, 43.69, 43.06, 41.42
Earnings Reports This Week:
Mon: premarket: HAL, MS, CHKP, RCL, HAS, KNL: postmarket: PWRD, IBM, RMBS, SANM, FTNT, LRCX, STLKD, RCI, HLX, UNCTT, HSTM
Tues: premarket: EDU, ARI, BHI, RF, SAP, AMTD, VZ, KMB, KSU, UTX, DD, DOV, ITW, LMT, PLD, EAT, DOV, LMT, MLNX, HOG, ARMH, UA,CS: postmarket: CAMP, DRWI, ADTN, CREE, NAVI, URI, INFN, ISRG, ACE, ILMN, SYK, VMW, YHOO, CUBI, BRCM, CMG, MANH, VASC, IRBT, YUM, FWRD, HITS, NBR, ZIXI
Wed: premarket: AZZ, MCD, BA, BABY, ABT, EMC, KFX, TDY, KO, HERO, ANGI, SIX, SONS: postmarket: EBAY, FFIV, LOGI, PLXS, SLM, XLNX, PLCM, FTK, IGT, T, AF, ALGT, BRKL, CTXS, FB, LVS, TXN, QCOM, TSCO, CLW, ORLY, TYL, WFT, SGMO, CAKE, SKX, CLGX
Thurs: premarket: LUV, UAL, ERIC, CAT, FCX, MMM, NUE, ALXN, BAX, BEAV, DGX, OSTK, PENN, PHN, RTM, ABBV, LLT, MO, GM, WHR, DNKN, LAZ, PEP, CAB, DPS, POOL, STX, WDPT, SYNT, IQNT, LTM, SFE, ASPS: postmarket: ALTR, CVTI, COF, DGII, ETFC, KLAC, MSCC, MXIM, KLAC, SBUX, MSFT, FSL, INFA, JNPR, SHOR, ABAX, AMZN, GIMO, GOOG, SYNA, MXWL, NTGR, P, SPCL, VRSN, QDEL, MTSN, QLIK, BAS, ACTG, AWAY, ALDR, NEM, SPNC, WIRE, HWAY, SPWR, HAWK, UHS, PCTI
Fri: premarket: INFY, PB, STT, AAL, IMGN, LEA, TYC, XRX, IMS, AZN, COG, FLIR
We got a ton of earnings kicking off this week notably bellweathers like FB, QCOM, UAL, GGOG, AMZN, EBAY, IBM, YHOO and so on. Make sure to allocation properly to adjust for volatility and pace yourself. Cya in the Pit! - Jea
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