[19:59] <Jay> Good evening gang :) Good evening everyone :)
[19:59] <rapid-away> hi all
[19:59] <Yardape> watching US Open and having a bud true true :-)
[19:59] <josemans> hey jay
[19:59] <steak> evening all
[19:59] <Fitz> Evening Jay
[19:59] <wayde> evening fitz jay
[20:00] <splitster> Hey Jay :-)
[20:00] <orcainvest> Good evening traders.
[20:00] <polletta> evening jay
[20:00] <Fitz> Lots of pitsters:-)
[20:00] <Yardape> orca
[20:00] <dr> Evening Jay...
[20:00] <orcainvest> yard :-)
[20:00] <Jay> we got a packed house this evening, let me start off by saying welcome to members and welcome to the trial members to our ORIENTATION seminar
[20:00] <mrboh> big crowd
[20:00] <josemans> ready to get educated
[20:00] <JRich> Jay!!!
[20:00] <batman> hello jay, i got your book so u better not read from it word for word ;')
[20:00] <willieboy> Evening all, back from vacation, missed the pit :-)
[20:00] <Fitz> Is the young man I met from CA with the Yankee hat here?
[20:00] <Jay> Trial members, you're voice is not activated in the Pit so feel free to forward questions to the purple people during the question and answering session
[20:01] <sbxtr> evening all back from work season
[20:01] <Jay> lol batman
[20:01] <eu> Hi all.
[20:01] <orcainvest> yard...thanks for US Open reminder. All good traders can multitask.
[20:01] <Jay> Ok gang, we are going to break this into 2 two sessions, I will start off the first session and then open up periodically to a question and answering, then ral will take over with his methods and open for question and answering
[20:02] <Yardape> multitasking is the sign of a good trader :-)
[20:02] <Jay> purple people feel free to step in anytime you feel :)
[20:02] <orcainvest> :-)
[20:02] <Mac> Jay...hate to ask, but is this going to be archived....I have to go home and will miss the beginning...and I'm in big dodo if I don't go :-)
[20:02] <Jay> ok gang, lets go ahead and get start, please save your questions until we specify
[20:02] <Jay> absolutely Mac, this session will be archived
[20:02] <Mac> thanks
[20:02] <Jay> Ok gang, lets get started
[20:02] <Jay> Slience please :)
[20:02] <Yardape> im ready
[20:03] <Yardape> how about the nationalk anthem
[20:03] <Jay> WELCOME to the Orientation SEMINAR Fall 2000
[20:03] <Yardape> oh say can you see
[20:03] <Jay> this evening we hope to address and answer any questions you may have and to get many of you started on the right foot
[20:03] <Jay> for those of you who lost your way, this will be a good refresher course
[20:03] <Jay> now lets get started
[20:04] <Jay> I will start with my methods inthe Pit
[20:04] <Jay> first and foremost, lets go over some thing here
[20:04] <Jay> The goal of daytrading is to make $$$$, profits
[20:04] <Jay> simple as that
[20:04] <Jay> this big ocean, this big salad bar known as the markets
[20:04] <Jay> are there for you to clip your green
[20:04] <Jay> you DONT NEED TO CLIP ALL THE GREEN
[20:05] <Jay> just to take your fill
[20:05] <Jay> day in and day out
[20:05] <Jay> that is the GOAL of this game
[20:05] <Jay> remember what I said, the goal is to be GREEN atthe end of the day
[20:05] <Jay> lots of traders enter this game on the WRONG foot
[20:05] <Jay> they watch cnbc and see a junker stock run
[20:05] <Jay> open an online trading accnt with a browser based broker
[20:06] <Jay> piled into a junker
[20:06] <Jay> get lucky, make some $$$
[20:06] <Jay> and decide they want to be daytraders
[20:06] <Jay> jumping on anything that moves
[20:06] <Jay> this will last until the next shakeout
[20:06] <Jay> and then the market will filter out another batch of statistics
[20:06] <Jay> and then another batch will enter
[20:06] <Jay> unless you want to be a statistic
[20:06] <Jay> you better get something STRAIGHT
[20:07] <Jay> in order to make a STEADY LIVING in this game
[20:07] <Jay> you NEED to have the TOOLS and the VEHICLES to consistently
[20:07] <Jay> make a living
[20:07] <Jay> The tools, we will show you
[20:07] <Jay> the vehicles, we will show you
[20:07] <Jay> you're job is this
[20:08] <Jay> have an OPEN mind, CHECK your EGO at the door
[20:08] <Jay> have the Patience and Discipline to papertrade and dip your toes into this game slooowly
[20:08] <Jay> i've seen too many people jump right into this game diving right into that pool
[20:08] <Jay> make big $$ one day, lose it back the next, etc
[20:09] <Jay> eventually the winning days run out as lukc runs out
[20:09] <Jay> thats not the way to do it
[20:09] <Jay> just like stepping into a pool on a how summer day, you want to tip your toes, slowly get into the pool so that your body can adjust
[20:09] <Jay> no need to dive in head first
[20:09] <Jay> ok so lets go ahead and understand some PREMISES in the markets
[20:10] <Jay> contrary to what many believe the Markets so move in some semblance of an orderly fashion
[20:10] <Jay> We KNOW that SECTORS move together
[20:10] <Jay> we know the WITHIN these sectors, there are leaders that move ahead of the rest of the sector and with enough momentum will pull
[20:10] <Jay> up the rest of the sector
[20:10] <Jay> these leaders are what we call the TIER 1 generals
[20:11] <Jay> The TIER 1 generals like YHOO, INTC, AMAT give you an indication of how strong or weak a sector is
[20:11] <Jay> we also know that the TIER 1's follow the futures
[20:11] <Jay> we like to use the Nasdaq 100 futures also known as the noodles
[20:11] <Jay> my method is VERY simple
[20:12] <Jay> Knowing that the noodles will move first and then lift the tier 1's
[20:12] <Jay> we naturally want to track the NOODLES as the ULTIMATE lead indicator
[20:12] <Jay> the best tool for this is the stochastics
[20:13] <Jay> stochastics is like a rubber band that is stretched, the further down it gets pulled, the more likely thechance it has to bounce
[20:13] <Jay> and vice versa on the upside
[20:13] <Jay> stochastics 20/80 bands are significant
[20:13] <Jay> we like to track the noodles trend on a 3 min stochastics chart
[20:14] <Jay> this tells us whether there is a buyside bias or a sell side bias in the market
[20:14] <Jay> the wind under the wings
[20:14] <Jay> when the stochastics 3 min noodles LIFTS it tends to lift the tier 1's and the strength stocks
[20:14] <Jay> knowing how important that 3 min stochastics on the noodles can be, we want a LEAD indicator or a headsup EVEN on that
[20:15] <Jay> and that is why we also track the noodles on a 1 minute stochastics chart
[20:15] <Jay> so the 1 minute stochastics chart gives us the HEADS UP on the 3 minute stochastics noodles which gives us a HEADS up on the tier 1's and the strength stocks
[20:15] <Jay> see gang, the markets are about WHO can REACT the FASTEST
[20:16] <Jay> underlying theme being that WE REACT and not PREDICT
[20:16] <Jay> He/SHE with the best REACTION time takes the cake
[20:16] <Jay> Now, EVERYONE should be charting the noodles
[20:16] <Jay> they are the LEAD indicator period
[20:16] <Jay> now on individual stocks
[20:17] <Jay> we have 2 types of charts that we use
[20:17] <Jay> the 1 minute stochastics CHART to measure SHORT TERM overbought and oversold indications
[20:17] <Jay> and the 3 min simple moving averages chart
[20:17] <Jay> LISTEN CLOSE
[20:17] <Jay> THOSE OF YOU NEW TO THIS GAME
[20:17] <Jay> YOU HAVE BUT ONLY ONE ASSIGNMENT
[20:18] <Jay> that is to get a FOOTHOLD into JUST ONE METHOD that WORKS and works consistently
[20:18] <Jay> I have stated up and down that the single best tool to get you going in daytrading is the 1 minute stochastics chart
[20:19] <Jay> The basic rule of thumb is when the %d and %dslow on the 1 min chart fall under 20 band and cros back UP
[20:19] <Jay> that is a typical BUY SIGNAL
[20:19] <Jay> for a SCALP
[20:19] <Jay> nothing more
[20:19] <Jay> Dont even mess with the shorts
[20:19] <Jay> newbies shouldnt even think about shorting
[20:19] <Jay> Very simple, 1 min stochastics chart if the stochastics falls under 20 and bounces back thru 20, that is a BUY SIGNAL
[20:20] <Jay> depending on the stock, it will reap you anywhere from at least 1/8 to 2++ points
[20:20] <Jay> it will work 8 out of 10 times
[20:20] <Jay> want proof?
[20:20] <Jay> pull up any stock chart today and go look at the historical data
[20:20] <Jay> look at the 1 min stochastics fall under 20 and buonce back over 20 and measure the price ticks
[20:21] <Jay> naturally the more active the stock that you select was, the greater the gains
[20:21] <Jay> but in the beginning, ALL YOU ARE worried about is finding a METHOD that WORKS most of the time
[20:21] <Jay> 1 min STOCHASTICS charts WORK
[20:21] <Jay> now practice on paper, practice on a simulator
[20:22] <Jay> your goal is to TAKE CLIPS aka SCALPS on these bounces as you get them
[20:22] <Jay> by watching and playing JUST 1 min stochastics bounces you will gain so much knowledge
[20:22] <Jay> People shun scalps, but SCALPS are base hits. Its an art, like masterful surgery
[20:23] <Jay> precision in motion
[20:23] <Jay> beautiful
[20:23] <Jay> so practice the SCALPS on the 1 min stochastics charts and eventually you will...
[20:23] <Jay> BUILD CONFIDENCE
[20:23] <Jay> in that tool
[20:24] <Jay> eventually, you will then tell yourself "hey, its real nice getting these 1/2 pt clips on the stochastics bounces, i get out just in time before the wiggle take my money, BUT
[20:24] <Jay> I tend to miss out on the BIGGER run... what can I do? "
[20:24] <Jay> now we enter the domain of the Next MOST POWERFUL CHART and TOOL you will ever use
[20:24] <Jay> that is the 3 min simple moving averages chart
[20:25] <Jay> This chart throws out the wiggles
[20:25] <Jay> this chart tells you TREND, SUPPORT/RESISTANCE and TRADING CHANNEL
[20:25] <Jay> what more could you posibly ASK FOR IN A CHART?!?!
[20:25] <Jay> lets break it down
[20:25] <Jay> the 3 min ma chart is composed of a 5 period lead also known as the reisistance
[20:26] <Jay> and a 15 period laggard also known as support
[20:26] <Jay> the space between the 5 and 15 period is the TRADING CHANNEL or TRADING RANGE
[20:26] <Jay> and the natural DIRECTION of the trading range is the TREND
[20:26] <Jay> UPTENDS are definied as HIGHER HIGHS and HIGHER lows
[20:26] <Jay> well sheesh, that just means the 5 and 15 period on the 3 min ma chart are...
[20:26] <Jay> MOVIGN UP diagonally
[20:26] <Jay> and vice versa on DOWNTRENDS
[20:27] <Jay> UPTENDS =UPTRENDS
[20:27] <Jay> higher highs and higher lows
[20:27] <Jay> thats an UPTREND
[20:27] <Jay> LOWER HIGHERS and LOWS LOWS = lower 5 period ma and lower 15 period ma = DOWNTREND
[20:27] <Jay> simple as pie
[20:28] <Jay> now as you start to watch the 3 min ma charts on those VERY same stocks that you played 1 min stochastics bounces on
[20:28] <Jay> things should start to clear up
[20:28] <Jay> although the stochastics is a great tool and you got the scalp
[20:28] <Jay> you will realize something
[20:28] <Jay> this stock is in an UPTREND
[20:28] <Jay> with a rising 15 period and 5 period
[20:29] <Jay> thus you realize, Hey! maybe i can ride this one HIGHER
[20:29] <Jay> with a trailing STOP under the 15 period support
[20:29] <Jay> BUT i dont like taking a full 1000 shares, so i MANAGE MY RISK and go a 1/2 lot with 500 shares
[20:29] <Jay> see gang THIS is the evolution of one's learning curve
[20:30] <Jay> now, lets show you some of the BEST patterns on a 3 min ma chart
[20:30] <Jay> the 3 BEST breakout patterns are:
[20:30] <Jay> 1) COnsolidation breakout
[20:30] <Jay> If you have your 3 min ma charts up
[20:30] <Jay> look at CIEN at 11:30 am this morning
[20:30] <Jay> MA
[20:30] <Jay> MA
[20:30] <Jay> MIA
[20:31] <Jay> oh, we LIVE, we LIVE for patterns like this
[20:31] <Jay> see that steady FLATLINE consolidation <--- means 5 and 15 period ma lines are even and horizontal
[20:31] <Jay> then at 11:45am
[20:31] <Jay> BOOOM breakout CIEN from 201 to 205
[20:31] <Jay> and it continues higher
[20:31] <Jay> thats a CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT
[20:32] <Jay> what this means is simple
[20:32] <Jay> on the outside it appears BUYERS and SELLERS are EVENLY MATCHED
[20:32] <Jay> but thats naieve
[20:32] <Jay> one side always has the power
[20:32] <Jay> that wildcard known as XXX ON THE FENCE
[20:32] <Jay> XXX = buyers or sellers
[20:32] <Jay> for THIS REASON, you do not want to be IN a position LONG or SHORT in a consolidation
[20:32] <Jay> because you dont know which side is stronger
[20:33] <Jay> as you get better you will know the subtle clues like the fading on thenoodles pullbacks is a dead giveaway the buyers are firmer
[20:33] <Jay> but anyhow
[20:33] <Jay> 3 min Consolidation BREAKOUTS are beautiful and... SAFE plays
[20:33] <Jay> why safe?
[20:33] <Jay> simple
[20:34] <Jay> the simple reason you get a BREAKOUT from the consolidation is BECAUSE the 15 period representing the bidders and support actually PUSHES
[20:34] <Jay> the sellers higher
[20:34] <Jay> THIS MEANS THE BUYERS ARE PUSHING THE ENVELOPE WHICH BRINGS IN MORE BUYERS OFF THE FENCE
[20:34] <Jay> CAUSING A STRONG BREAKOUT
[20:34] <Jay> always remember that
[20:35] <Jay> next best breakout pattern is 2) a GAP FILL BREAKOUT
[20:35] <Jay> also known as a cup and handle breakout
[20:35] <Jay> good example of this is NTAP TODAY
[20:35] <Jay> on the open we called at 101
[20:36] <Jay> look at the 10:00 am chart on NTAP
[20:36] <Jay> see the gap pullback and FILL
[20:36] <Jay> now technically speaking NTAP opened at the highs on a gap to 102-3/4
[20:36] <Jay> that would be the actual gap fill BUT a cup and handle develops shortly after the open on a gap fill to 101-1/2
[20:36] <Jay> you can see that pattern
[20:37] <Jay> GAP FILLS are especially EFFECTIVE on the OPEN and on MOMENTUM like IPOS
[20:37] <Jay> the psychology behind gap fills is very simple
[20:37] <Jay> when a stock gaps at a HIGH, the pullback which represents the GAP from the high
[20:37] <Jay> are profit takers
[20:38] <Jay> when the stock bottoms and starts to FILL THAT GAP BACK TO THE HIGH
[20:38] <Jay> in essence it symbolizes that the sellers are out
[20:38] <Jay> it isnt until that HIGH is hit again that its understood that sellers are totally out and anyone buying above the gap is a NEW BUYER
[20:38] <Jay> but most importantly
[20:38] <Jay> when a stock GAP FILLS
[20:38] <Jay> its like ERASING a bad dream, the pullback has ben erased
[20:39] <Jay> a clean slate psychologically so taht new buyers can come in
[20:39] <Jay> mental? yes
[20:39] <Jay> effective? heck yes!
[20:39] <Jay> it works
[20:39] <Jay> thats why you always hear me say, let's look for gap and traps and GAP FILLS
[20:39] <Jay> these are psychological sticking points
[20:40] <Jay> and lastly, the 3rd most effective 3 min breakout pettern
[20:40] <Jay> are PUP breakouts
[20:40] <Jay> REmember that an uptrend is represented by a rising 5 period and a rising 15 period
[20:40] <Jay> in essence higher HIGHS and HIGHER LOWS
[20:41] <Jay> what happens when the 5 period representing sellers/shorts tries to HOLD down the higher highs
[20:41] <Jay> YET
[20:41] <Jay> the 15 period representing the SUPPORT and BIDDERS continues to RISE??
[20:41] <Jay> in essence, the IMMOVABLE OBJECT--? 5 period
[20:41] <Jay> ? = >
[20:41] <Jay> when this happens
[20:42] <Jay> we encounter what I call a PUP (Power UPtik breakout)
[20:42] <Jay> what that means is that the bidder press the shorts/sellers HIGHER
[20:42] <Jay> take a look at the INTC 10am chart this morning
[20:43] <Jay> 5 period levels off at 73-3/4 yet the bidders continue to pull the 15 period HIGHER
[20:43] <Jay> eventually INTC breaks to higher levekls squeezing the shorts and pushing back the sellers
[20:43] <Jay> a PUP breakout
[20:44] <Jay> look at those patterns, memorize those PATTERNS
[20:44] <Jay> these are EFFECTIVE
[20:44] <Jay> You will always hear me talk about the MO TICKS
[20:44] <Jay> MO TICKS are very simple
[20:44] <Jay> these are the MOST LIQUID AND POWERFUL TICKS
[20:44] <Jay> IN A STOCK
[20:44] <Jay> THESE TICKS will allow you to GAUGE the momentum as well as give you the chance to SELL into the buyers
[20:45] <Jay> my theory has ALWAYS BEEN to be SELLING into BUYERS before the momentum reverses
[20:45] <Jay> and the wiggle kicks in
[20:45] <Jay> the mo ticks go Round number, 1/2 and 1/4's
[20:45] <Jay> the ROUND NUMBER is the MOST liquid tick in ANY STOCK
[20:45] <Jay> its the safeest place to unload mass shares
[20:45] <Jay> then the 1/2's
[20:46] <Jay> and finally the 1/4's
[20:46] <Jay> in addition, i always talk about the 5/10 resistance/support points
[20:46] <Jay> these are momentum rules
[20:46] <Jay> 5 and 10 are sticking points and in pbetween the 2-1/2's
[20:46] <Jay> my thory is perhaps these levels are ingrained PSYCHOLOGICALLY into the minds of traders and market makers simply because
[20:46] <Jay> that is how the OPTIONS contracts are usually priced in 2-1/2 pt increments
[20:46] <Jay> in any case
[20:47] <Jay> the simple momentum rules are this
[20:47] <Jay> you need to be LOCKING PROFITS INTO the 5 and 10 ticks
[20:47] <Jay> infact 4-5 and 9-10 is where you SELL INTO BUYERS
[20:47] <Jay> then ONCE the 5 and 10 BASE, then look for reentry
[20:47] <Jay> hindsight means sh*T
[20:47] <Jay> i'm talking REALTIME, IN THE TRENCHES
[20:47] <Jay> you cant go wrong with these rules
[20:48] <Jay> CIEN for example
[20:48] <Jay> today
[20:48] <Jay> 204- x 205 range you lock profits and wait for 205 to BASE
[20:48] <Jay> BASE how?
[20:48] <Jay> CIEN was trading above the 5 period mo support thus we want the 5 period mo support to base 205
[20:48] <Jay> when that happened, we called CIEN AT 205 on the breakout
[20:48] <Jay> it nicely popped to 207-1/2 range wiggled
[20:49] <Jay> as it popped to 209+
[20:49] <Jay> at 209 x 210, traders were TOLD to LOCK PROFITS INTO these ticks
[20:49] <Jay> reentry ONLY after 210 bases
[20:49] <Jay> which it did not
[20:49] <Jay> in hindisght that was smart
[20:49] <Jay> had cien gone to 214
[20:49] <Jay> in hindisght we would have seen the 5 period mo support rise above 210 givnig us a reentry
[20:49] <Jay> these momentum RULES work
[20:49] <Jay> would it be easier just to sit in the stock?
[20:49] <Jay> yes
[20:50] <Jay> would it be wise?
[20:50] <Jay> heck NO
[20:50] <Jay> you gotta do some work here gang
[20:50] <Jay> wanna be an investor, go elsewhere
[20:50] <Jay> this is daytrading
[20:50] <Jay> and the name of this game is to lower your RISK while maintaining the highest level of a reward
[20:50] <Jay> simple as that
[20:51] <Jay> you let EGO, GREED or any other rotten rmotion get in the way, you are opening yourself up to some pain
[20:51] <Jay> So now lets put it all together
[20:51] <Jay> we take the noodles 1 and 3 min stochastics as lead indicators
[20:51] <Jay> when 1 min pops and the 3 min follows through
[20:51] <Jay> you should be watching yourbasket stocks
[20:51] <Jay> 1 min stochastics bounce? good entry above 20 band break
[20:52] <Jay> 3 min ma charts? if stock is in an uptrend good entry as close to the breakout, if its amomentum stock trading above 5 period mo support? then enter witha trailing stop
[20:52] <Jay> just wiggle room under 5 period mo support
[20:52] <Jay> in other words, the noodles will give you the heads up to make your move
[20:53] <Jay> Most importantly gang
[20:53] <Jay> there is NOTHING that can substitute you WATCHING a STOCK
[20:53] <Jay> JUST WATCH YOUR STOCK
[20:53] <Jay> then react
[20:53] <Jay> i have to say there are 2 things that kill traders
[20:53] <Jay> 1) trading out of boredom
[20:53] <Jay> 2) jumping headfirst into an unknown stock
[20:54] <Jay> these 2 things have hurt 90% of the traders that flunk out of thisgame
[20:54] <Jay> our philosphy is to be like snipers
[20:54] <Jay> let it come to you
[20:54] <Jay> let it break and hit your crosshairs
[20:54] <Jay> REACT, do not PREDICT
[20:54] <Jay> ok gang, lets open the forum up for some questions
[20:54] <Jay> trial members feel free to dcc a purple person if you have a question
[20:55] <splitster> great job so far Jay
[20:55] <Jay> feel free to ask
[20:55] <Jay> \
[20:55] <luke> yes please fell free to dcc me
[20:55] <luke> feel
[20:55] <riverdan> jay would you define a trap for everyone ;; as in gap and trap
[20:55] <josemans> When do you enter on a Gap Fill breakout?
[20:55] <pauln> You refer to base a stock and fading. Explain
[20:55] <antman> what happens when a trend isnt apparent?
[20:55] <Fitz> Me tto
[20:55] <Hunter> here to help if i can
[20:56] <Jay> joseman, gap fill breakouts, i like to give the call just under the gap fill, that is usually a tad early but above the gap many times means you are chasing for a tough fill
[20:56] <a23> what is a trailing stop???
[20:56] <Jay> riverdan, sure a gap and trap is when a stock gaps to its highs on the open and tanks
[20:56] <cando> as an example, on the cien consolidation breakout, what are you looking to to confirm breadout?
[20:57] <Jay> pauln, when i say a stock is BASING i am referring to a stock that is HOLDING its support or HOLDING a round number support usually "eg: CIEN is basing 202, will means that 202 is holding as a support most likely a 5 period mo supprot
[20:57] <cando> breadout=breakout
[20:57] <huge> Hi Jay
[20:57] <nikkomon> Jay I see breakouts every day, but they fizzle, how do you determine whether one is the right one, what are the indicators?
[20:57] <Hunter> thats 2x in a row u just beat me to the punch jay :)
[20:57] <Jay> antman, when a TREND isnt apparent, i got two words for you.... DO NOTHING
[20:57] <luke> to answer a question that i'm sure more than just the person that dcc'ed me wants to know - noodles = nasdaq futures :)
[20:57] <ppie> Jay Can you explain what the 5 period and the 15 period are in simple terms? Are they 5 "3 minute periods and 15 "3 minute periods"
[20:57] <Jay> remember there is a premise for every trade you make, how pointless is it to enter a trade in a stock that has no trend ie: consolidation ?
[20:58] <matt> Jay- where can I get help setting up the charts (3 min ma, etc.)
[20:58] <Jay> a23, trailing stop is an initial point whdere you want to be taking stops or paring out shares to protect yourdownside because the trade may look to be going AGAINST you
[20:58] <josemans> when you say "mo" support do you mean the most liquid support tick in a stock???
[20:59] <Jay> nikko, volume is key make sure you got a stock with volume, also a good uptrending stock maintains a rising 5 and 15 period ma
[20:59] <bdaugher> Jay, the1Minute Stochastics didn't look all that inviting when CIEN brokeout, what gives the breakout signal?
[20:59] <a23> Gio??? What is a trailing stop? I use a mental stop to sell ahead of when I go in for a buy is that the same thing?
[20:59] <nikkomon> what about a consolidation breakout?
[21:00] <Jay> matt, go to the charts link downloadable pages are there for realtick, cyber qcharts
[21:00] <cando> Jay, confirmation signs on the momentum breakout? volume, or?
[21:00] <darkmagic> jay, what do volume changes during a consolidation tell us about the liklihood of a breakout?
[21:00] <bhj> a tad off topic Jay, You're fingers have to be parched - buy you a beer?
[21:00] <Fitz> 123, all our stops are mental,
[21:00] <Jay> no joseman i am referring to the 5 period support on the 3 min ma charts
[21:00] <Fitz> a23, all the stops are mental
[21:00] <Gio> a23..you can set a trailing stop on mbt or cyber software so you don't forget to use the mental stop
[21:00] <dr> are PUP breakouts pretty common or just ocassional?
[21:00] <Jay> consolidatio breakouts are thebest nikko, the supports are so close to the breakout point that downside is minimal BUT you have to catch them early for the best safety
[21:00] <Gio> mbt allows you to set a trailing stop
[21:00] <matt> Jay- I've been to the chart download site, but the charts are not labeled. Any help here?
[21:01] <swampcat> how to chart ndoos using CyberTrader please?
[21:01] <jamesbond> jay,when the stochs break out above the 20 level, then go right back below the 20 level-do u hold and wait for another bounce or do you get out of dodge?
[21:01] <antman> Jay during low volume periods it would be best to play only the highest volume stocks to increase our chances of some folloe thru?
[21:01] <snipertrader> jay question was asked about the 5 and 15 period in simple terms
[21:01] <pauln> When you say a stock is fading nicely, what do you mean?
[21:01] <a23> Gio, I am using Ravenquotes With DATEK as my broker..any suggestions??
[21:01] <Jay> darkmagic, usually consolidations mean volume slows down because just as you and i would not enter a consolidation neither would others, but as we wait for the bidders to push when a breakout occurs you will see a dramatic volume pop from buyers off the fence
[21:01] <josemans> It seems as a newbie we want to pick cheaper stocks for our basket:however, these seem to be lower volume and riskier, do you reccommend sticking with Tier 1's and trade less shares?
[21:01] <Jay> bhj lol
[21:02] <Jay> dr, they are pretty common
[21:02] <nikkomon> Do gap fills change throughout the day? IN otherwards is a gap fill just retracement to a new hod?
[21:02] <darkmagic> thx jay
[21:02] <Gio> a23 get a new broker..not datek for trading
[21:02] <Hunter> a23 i suggest mbt a23. imho the best support and lower prices starting sept.
[21:02] <Jay> matt, you can download or use the setup instrcutions, charts witha %d are stochastics charts with 5 adn 15 period ma are ma charts
[21:03] <ppie> Jay can you explain the 5 period and the 15 period in simpler terms. Are they MA's?
[21:03] <TomE> if cien breakout price is 202, (for example) do you look for a break out of 1/8 or more to determine its not a trap?
[21:03] <matt> okay, thanks Jay
[21:03] <snipertrader> need 5 and 15 period??? are they 5 3min bars 15 3 min bars
[21:03] <Jay> yes joseman, but understand something, volume is LIGHT in this market to begin with, as we move past labor day the cheaper tier 2's will get more volume as with the whole market
[21:03] <trisle> Why not use EMA instead of SMA?
[21:03] <Jay> when starting off you want liquidity and oscillations
[21:03] <Fitz> As Jay has said, you need the tools to daytrade, don't try trading with a web based broker, go with Cyber Mbt etc
[21:03] <Jay> tristle SMA inmy experience has been themost effective
[21:03] <Jay> it works
[21:04] <swampcat> How to chart ndoos using Cyber please?
[21:04] <cando> Jay, both D & Dslow need to go under, say 20, and then both back out?
[21:04] <talermech> Inthe NTAP example, @ the open u have 1 min stochs for the stock bouncing off the 0% 5 per crossin over 15 and noodles on an uptrend why wait for the gap fill (or just before it ) and not treat as another break out?
[21:04] <Jay> jamesbond, good question, usually its really good to be watching the 3 min ma charts to help you decide if the stock is in an uptrend then you can hold on the wiggle, also i especially love 3 attmped 20 band bounces in other words 2 failed tries usually means the 3 ones the real bounce
[21:04] <mellis8888> Hunter NOTE MBT lower prices but they now do not pay all fees...
[21:05] <Hunter> i didnt know that mellis, what fees are add ons?
[21:05] <Jay> antman yes and no, the tier 1's usually dont move much on thin volume days so that is why we have seen these turds grind higher, rule of tumb is to go where the volume is
[21:05] <antman> ty :-)
[21:05] <Easy> how about you Purple people sharing a few basket stocks that you feel are easy to trade
[21:05] <Jay> nikko simply pu yes
[21:05] <a23> Gio..Hunter..thanks for the info...got distracted from the seminar for a few....but DATEK has always filled me instantly...and at 10 bucks..
[21:05] <mellis8888> exchange fees see mbt site
[21:05] <Jay> ppie, 5 and 15 period are simple moving averages on a 3 min time interval
[21:05] <Hunter> ty mellis
[21:06] <ppie> Thanks Jay
[21:06] <Jay> swampcat, make sure you sign a cme agreement to get the noodles feed then use the stochastics charts and have one on a 1 minute and one on a 3 min interval intraday 2 days back
[21:06] <Fitz> Easy, none are easy to ride, you need to study them all, pick ones that have good liquidity,.
[21:06] <mellis8888> I,m not sure exactly so you should ck for yourself to be sure
[21:06] <ppie> Jay how do you chart noodles in Cybertrader?
[21:07] <Jay> talermech, you could have played it eaither way, but in this game the more marbles you have on your side at the point of entry the better, a gap fill is a big PLUS in the positive side of the long just more confirmation thats all, confirmation cnfirmation confirmation
[21:07] <orcainvest> Fitz, I guess avoiding thin stocks would be good advise.
[21:07] <orcainvest> advice
[21:07] <bhj> mellis, imo they are insignificant - the savings are huge
[21:07] <swampcat> Thanks Jay :)
[21:07] <Jay> cando yes the crossover thru 20 bands are very effective on the 1 min stoch
[21:07] <matt> For the newbies, can we NOT use acronyms? What is EMA and SMA?
[21:07] <Hunter> a23, i tell you from the bottom of my heart, i have been at this full time almost 5 years, mbt is the way to go. thats it. i have learned from the past.
[21:07] <Gio> a23..datek is limiting and when you need service or support in a hurry you won't get it
[21:07] <josemans> Jay I get confused when you say the noodles are bouncing on the stochastics chart. On cyber I con only see noodles on 1 min chart. What do I need to see what you see?
[21:07] <Hunter> gio and i tag teaming a23.. lol
[21:07] <Hunter> but its so true
[21:07] <Gio> so cheaper is not always better
[21:07] <Jay> ppie i just answered it reL: charting noodles on cyber scrol back up a few lines pls
[21:07] <Fitz> If you are a newer trader, play the one stoch bounce on big float stocks for 1/4 and 3/8 clips, good way to learn, SUNW, BVS< CSCO, INTC all work well
[21:08] <splitster> Jay, where can one get info on who are the tier 1's, 2's, etc. and what sectors their in, also, how does one know what stks to use for tier sunergy that go with ones basket stks?
[21:08] <mellis8888> 10-4 but depends on lot size at 1m shares its a wash on some
[21:08] <intimidator> easy, im not a people person but check out INTC, huge vol so it is easy to get in and out and also is not a wild mover so if you on the wrong side of a trade you can get out without getting burnt bad
[21:08] <SysopDave> NEWBIES: Make sure you've checked out: http://faq.undergroundtrader.com/
[21:08] <Jay> EMA is exponential moving averages, SMA is simple moving averages, i use simple moving averages
[21:08] <matt> thx Jay
[21:08] <Jay> joseman usually i will specifiy which time frame i am watching
[21:08] <splitster> sunergy = synergy
[21:08] <Jay> 1 min is lead 3 min is trend on the noodles stochastics
[21:08] <Fitz> Exactly intimadtor
[21:09] <snipertrader> "
[21:09] <Jay> splitster will post up a new tier list by Wednesday
[21:09] <antman> my new basket stock is INTC..played it today and loved it
[21:09] <splitster> okay
[21:09] <glink> Jay, you say newbies should start with small shares and 1 min stochs, going to 3 min ma. when do shares "increase"
[21:09] <Fitz> Stocks like INTC and CSCO can be played all day on the one min stoch chart for $$
[21:09] <Jay> glink, shares increase as you get comfortabel enough to scalp easily on the 1 min stoch bounces
[21:09] <bhj> mellis, true :-)
[21:09] <Jay> when you go live is up to you, you will know
[21:10] <garth3> jay do you trade
[21:10] <orcainvest> AMAT, NVLS, SUNW also good basket stocks
[21:10] <Jay> garth3, nope
[21:10] <garth3> why not
[21:10] <cando> Jay, indication that a consolidation is breaking out would be??
[21:10] <Jay> because i am running the room
[21:10] <garth3> o
[21:10] <a23> Perhaps I need to log onto MBTrading and take another look around.
[21:10] <Fitz> cando, volume and the 3 min chart breaking out
[21:11] <garth3> sounds like your a great trader
[21:11] <Jay> cando, that would be a 5 period rising off the consolidation as well as 15 period rising
[21:11] <Hunter> honest a23, imho, its either now or later
[21:11] <Jay> CIEN a perfect example of consolidation breakout
[21:11] <foley> yes a23 - listen to the wisdom of gio and hunter
[21:11] <Jay> if you really want to analyze CIEN
[21:11] <Fitz> You cant break out without volume, it will just be a fake out
[21:11] <Jay> we KNOW that 200 had to base but darn that sucker just couldnt hold that range tight
[21:11] <ubet> a23 - My paperwork is in process after my evaluation, I realize I would have save 400 today if I had MBT 9/1
[21:11] <antman> story of my life Fitz
[21:11] <cando> thanks
[21:11] <a23> GIO: Roger on that...DATEK is NOT a service oriented broker...I have gotten snubbed many times as a matter of fact..
[21:11] <Hunter> splitster, there are a few ways to start with the synergy lists... http://www.zdii.com/sec_KEY.asp?ticker=INTC is a good site to find a companies competition,,, with that u can see who the leaders are
[21:11] <bhj> garth, check out todays log, I asked a similar question
[21:11] <jkr> great job jay
[21:11] <Jay> so the market makers did everything they could and ate CIEN shares to keep it above 200 throughthe noodles pullbacks so on thenoodles bounce it breakout out hard
[21:12] <intimidator> hey purple people how many monitors do you use?
[21:12] <Hunter> 5 plus cnbc
[21:12] <josemans> Jay,I notice that alot of the calls dont coincide with the Stochastics crossing the 20 band on a bounce up, I realize that you use 3 min and consolidation ect.. but as a newbie do you reccomend we play only the baskets on 3 indicators?
[21:12] <Fitz> What is the noodles symbol on Cyber anyone
[21:12] <Fitz> Is it nq00u
[21:12] <Jay> folks a word about brokers, unless you are using cybertrader or mbtrading, you are out of the loop. datek, amertitade, etrade.. give me a rbeak, thats like saying you want to learn ato ride amotorcycle but will wait to save up for a helmet
[21:13] <Jay> you NEED THE TOOLS from the getgo
[21:13] <ubet> Could you explain fading, especially in context of against the noodles pull-back
[21:13] <Jay> you dont 'work' your way up to a daytrading broker
[21:13] <Jay> you START THERE
[21:13] <stocktoker> best charting for tradecast is ?
[21:13] <Fitz> Any Cyber users, what is the noodles symbol?
[21:13] <josemans> Fitz its ndu0 and thats a zero on the end
[21:13] <Hunter> i have gotten a couple of questions regarding chart settings .. paid members can download charts from http://charts.undergroundtrader.com/ .. all settings and explanations are there
[21:13] <intimidator> fitz ND U0
[21:13] <splitster> Jay, when the 3 min 15 per is still down but the 5 per is crossing over to the upside is this still not a good time to get in because the 15 per is down
[21:13] <Fitz> thanks josemans,
[21:14] <stocktoker> ty
[21:14] <josemans> no prob
[21:14] <Jay> ubet fading simply means going AGAINST the grain, so if the noodles are pulling DOWN, a strength stock would HOLD UP or even move HIGHER which means its FADING or DEVIATING from the overall market trend
[21:14] <antman> Jay and the ALL the purples are really the best to learn this game from...Bring on Sept and the volume Amen
[21:14] <splitster> on a stk chart
[21:14] <mackenzy> Jay......what indicators or advice can you give to better determine if a wiggle (pull-back) on an alert, is still intact, and still a relatively safe entry, ( if there is such an indicator ) is there something special to watch for such as a stall or chippie selling etc. ? getting faked out a lot lately......
[21:14] <Jay> yes joseman start with your basket and watch the synergies
[21:14] <Jay> new traders should NOT BE PLAYING THE CALLS, the calls are ONLY for traders who KNOW the tools and know the stocks
[21:15] <gikke> Slash NDUzero click on the chart
[21:15] <glink> reading level 2 and head fakes seems difficult at times. Besides time, any suggestions. could a live deadzone be a possibility?
[21:15] <luke> gettin quite a few dcc's on the basic setup for charts -so i'll post here..minimum setup imo would be 1 lvl2 w/Time and Sales,a 1minute chart, the 3min chart,a 1 minute noodles, and a daily chart
[21:15] <Jay> splitster thats a 5 period crossover and a breakout signal, look at SCMR today at 143 where 5 period croses over for a nice pop to 146
[21:15] <Jay> good example
[21:15] <matt> Jay- what's the best way to NOT get fooled by headfakes? (i.e watch 5 min ma? or something?)
[21:15] <Jay> always be on the lookout for 5 period crossovers
[21:15] <splitster> okay thx
[21:15] <Jay> mac, very simple
[21:15] <wayde> .
[21:15] <Fitz> Most of the chart setups are posted on the undergound website
[21:15] <Jay> the 3 min ma chart, if thestock is trading ABOVE its 5 period ma support, use that ma support as your wiggle room
[21:16] <ppie> Jay . Why should we be wary of Chippies actions. Are we also to be looking out for other ECN activity?
[21:16] <Jay> once that 5 period ma is violated pare down means themomentum is slipping
[21:16] <Hunter> glink, dont play summer deadzone
[21:16] <Hunter> unless jay says short at will
[21:16] <Jay> glink, level 2 is not so hard if you watch first before you enter a trade, level 2 is full of fakes that is why only stress level 2 for exits and entries, gauging momentum ticks and for fading market makers known as AXes
[21:16] <antman> man that was sweet Hunter
[21:16] <swampcat> gikke - thank you - it works - I can see noodles!!
[21:16] <bhj> hunter :-)
[21:16] <luke> Hunter :)
[21:16] <mackenzy> Thanks :-)
[21:16] <Jay> matt watch 3 min ma charts
[21:16] <Hunter> but seriously, low volume days are most tricky during deadzone
[21:17] <orcainvest> hunter...lol
[21:17] <glink> Hunter, don't play summer deadzone. only asking about a seminar. :)
[21:17] <talermech> -
[21:17] <Hunter> ahh, sorry glink
[21:17] <Jay> ppie, lately we've seen a lot of archip spofs multiple 1k orders lined up on the bid and pulled witha siple ctrl-c
[21:17] <luke> for trial members new to chat -to dcc one of us doubleclick our name on the right
[21:17] <sjw> von see dcc
[21:17] <Jay> thats bs, but if you're not aware of this can fool you
[21:17] <Jay> when you see chippies spoofs or cranks should be looking to sell
[21:17] <josemans> Jay when the 5 period crosses over the 15 period and its not in a steep angle down , would you wait to see if it's consolidating or just get the heck out?
[21:17] <Jay> not to buy in
[21:17] <pauln> Tellus more about knowing a stock.
[21:17] <ppie> Thanks
[21:18] <sparky> Jay do you think after labor day we will see more volumn
[21:18] <Jay> joseman once again it depends on the stock
[21:18] <antman> Has anyone been able to update the Big Easy yet for today??
[21:18] <Fitz> Could someone help huguesdb with Cyber chart setup , he cant seem to bring up the noodles
[21:18] <Hunter> sparky, history says yes
[21:18] <a23> JAY: can I make a pitch here for your book(s)?
[21:18] <Jay> also remeber gang, there is no such rule that says you gotta be all in or all out, if a stock is starting to breakdown, geez pare out some shares
[21:18] <Hunter> is he paying the fee fitz?
[21:18] <Jay> commissions costs are the last of your worries
[21:18] <Fitz> :-)
[21:18] <sparky> i hope so hunter
[21:18] <Jay> pare out, the goal is capital preservation
[21:18] <Hunter> if there is a fee for futures with cyber that is
[21:18] <daytripper> is trading without a scanner like fishing without bait?
[21:19] <Hunter> mbt does not give futures unless u pay a premium
[21:19] <wayde> no futures are free with cyber
[21:19] <Jette> I can't get CyBer up this late here gang
[21:19] <intimidator> on level II i like to watch INCA,BRTD for direction
[21:19] <gikke> click in the chart type /NDUzero
[21:19] <wayde> but you must signup
[21:19] <Hunter> ok wayde, didnt know
[21:19] <Jay> daytraipper, a scanner will make a good trader MORE effective because he gets more ideas to apply his/her skills to
[21:19] <Hunter> ahh
[21:19] <sbxtr> antman :yes after 3pm pacific usually
[21:19] <BigRocket> Jay, got here little late, but what are you looking for when you are trying to become familiar with the rhythm of a stock? Thanks
[21:19] <Jay> a scanner will not doing anything for a bad trader
[21:19] <Hunter> did u see that huguesdb, u need to sign up for futres with cyber
[21:19] <nikkomon> Question for the vets, after the opening and you select a trending stock do you scalp large shares on bounces or do you keep small shares and just ride it up?
[21:20] <ppie> I got Cyber noodles. Thanks
[21:20] <riverdan> newbies, be very clear on noodles. Noodles are options, you need to contract your broker or QCharts/data feed to sign up for CME options
[21:20] <TomE> anyone with cyber: is there a way to highlight a MM on a level 2?
[21:20] <orcainvest> Nikko...sometimes both together...
[21:20] <wayde> huguesdb did you fill out futures forms
[21:20] <Jay> bigrocket, watch the speed of the spreads and how the stock reacts to the noodles 1 and 3 min, the most reactive stocks will wiggle and jerk on that 1 min stochastics alone
[21:20] <TomE> level 2 chart?
[21:20] <splitster> Jay, how do you get a short off in a stock that's tanking, ex. EMLX
[21:20] <Jette> TomE -- no
[21:20] <riverdan> otherwise, you won't see real time options /noodles values
[21:21] <Hunter> the larger the shares the easier the shake nikkomon,,, so on high volume stocks on a day with conviction larger shares are ok
[21:21] <splitster> EMLX on Friday
[21:21] <wayde> hugesdb surely you did
[21:21] <wayde> just type the symbol on the chart
[21:21] <Jay> splitster, let me be frank, to get a short was probably very tough its a matter of enter and reentering and clicking away like mad to randomnly get a cross lock fill
[21:21] <Jay> on isld
[21:21] <antman> go way below the bid worked for me splitster in EMLX case
[21:21] <Fitz> What is the realtick symbol for noodles anyone
[21:21] <Gio> Jay............jscott would like to ask about order routing when you have time
[21:21] <hapy> Tom E --Yes
[21:22] <Fitz> splitster, you have to go to ISLD
[21:22] <Jay> realtick noodles /ndu0
[21:22] <OZ> rt3 ndooles = /NDU0
[21:22] <Fitz> thanks
[21:22] <BabyHuey> pre market or post market Fitz? :)
[21:22] <snipertrader> tome e try holding down the ctrl key clik on mm with mouse this may work
[21:22] <Jay> good point riverdan, thank you
[21:22] <RBear> mbt symbol is /NDU0
[21:22] <intimidator> jay who do you use for your charts?
[21:22] <Hunter> my wife kiken me off this puter... gotta go,, have a nice night everyone :)
[21:22] <BabyHuey> or market?
[21:22] <OZ> oops
[21:22] <splitster> by offering the stk on isld or pref isld Jay or Antman
[21:22] <antman> hunter have a good night
[21:22] <Fitz> Hunter:-) see ya
[21:22] <RBear> beat by oz
[21:22] <hunter-gone> by guys : )
[21:22] <Jay> jscott, order routing in a nutshell, the DIRECT ROUTE IS THE FASTEST and ISLD IS THE KING. isld to ISLD always wins hands down
[21:23] <trisle> Cyber won't let you short below ask
[21:23] <Jay> in a panic situation use an ISLD sweep order up or down meaning you place your order several ticks under the inside or above to buy to sweep up anything up to that price limit without having to reetner the order
[21:23] <trisle> God knows I tried it
[21:23] <Jay> then ECN to ECN, eg: redi to redi, inca to inca, etc..
[21:23] <wayde> yes they will trisle on an uptick
[21:23] <Jay> night hunter :)
[21:23] <a23> Hunter: can I select to send my orders to Island on MBT anytime I want?
[21:23] <gikke> Trisle 1/16 above inside bid
[21:23] <TomE> ty
[21:23] <Fitz> yes a23
[21:24] <Jay> splitster if you have a direct isld key on your order routing nail the bid or ask sweep
[21:24] <ppie> What is trisle?
[21:24] <ppie> Sorryu
[21:24] <splitster> okay thx
[21:24] <luke> chippies=people that use the ARCA routing system in the wrong way and help to cause panic in stocks,mms step off, kill momenum etc.
[21:24] <Jay> a23 you can selectnet it but ISLD toISLD is quicker, mb has a button a23
[21:24] <OZ> yes a23
[21:24] <Jay> luke, EXCELLENT DEFINITION!!
[21:24] <Jay> i like that !
[21:24] <splitster> antman thx too
[21:24] <Jay> o/
[21:24] <luke> been dcced on that one a couple times
[21:24] <a23> Fitz: so I am not locked into routing elswhere? and what does dcc mean?
[21:24] <Jay> \o/
[21:25] <Fitz> It means double clicking on someones name, and opening a private chat window
[21:25] <Jay> a23, dcc is a function in the pit you double click someone's name on the user column and get a private chat window
[21:25] <wayde> dcc is a private message
[21:25] <Jay> exactly Fitz :)
[21:25] <a23> thanks guys/gals
[21:25] <Gio> a23 yes
[21:25] <luke> anyone have the cyber symbol for noodles? (qchart user here)
[21:25] <orcainvest> Jay, maybe mention NOT to get out fast with ARCA.
[21:25] <josemans> jay do you recommend we hook up with cybertrader and mbtrader?
[21:25] <snipertrader> Jay please have seminar just on order routing one day son!
[21:25] <snipertrader> soon
[21:25] <wayde> yes cyber /ndu0
[21:25] <Fitz> I am told it is /ndu0
[21:25] <david> TomE did you get your MM highlight question answered?
[21:26] <Fitz> wayde, do you have to be signed up for cme first
[21:26] <Gio> snipertrader..there are a few seminars on order routing
[21:26] <wayde> yes fitz you do
[21:26] <spaceranger> Fitz, Gikke, think I got the Cyber noodles thing figured out. Thx for help
[21:26] <matt> Jay- Island to Island, redi to redi, I don't get it. I place an order through MBT for an Island route- is this "Island to Island"?
[21:26] <snipertrader> where
[21:26] <splitster> Jay, will your tier list show all the differernt sectors and who the generals are in each
[21:26] <snipertrader> ??
[21:26] <Jay> ye gang, be careful not to panic on arca especially on the thinner stocks, #1 you wont get filled right, #2 those selectnet pref that arca does is a daead giveaway to mms that there is panic
[21:26] <Fitz> Sometimes you need to be signed up for cme, if you are not getting it, make sure you are registered for cme
[21:26] <josemans> yes Fitz your have to have CME
[21:26] <Jay> joseman yes they are great
[21:26] <a23> Quote.com is ND00U noodles..
[21:26] <Gio> in seminars logs
[21:26] <wayde> if you have cybertrader then most likely you signed up
[21:27] <Jay> snipetrader check the trader training semianr index, i've done many but will do more as you need ;-)
[21:27] <Jay> yes matt
[21:27] <Fitz> You have to type the noodles symbol into a chart box, not a stock box
[21:27] <luke> underground
[21:27] <Jay> splitster i will try to make it as broad as possible
[21:27] <snipertrader> thanks
[21:27] <vic> gio/Jay, okay, better late than never, moving to MB Trading this Friday......
[21:27] <Jay> ok gang
[21:27] <splitster> great thx
[21:27] <wayde> fitz tell them to type the symbol directly on a chart and they will know if they have a futures feed
[21:27] <Jay> lets hold off on the questions at this point
[21:27] <Gio> vic....lol about time
[21:27] <Jay> so Ral can get started on his portion of the seminar
[21:28] <Jay> Ral will go over his methods and techniques
[21:28] <splitster> someone give the teacher his apple
[21:28] <Jay> so lets give ral the SPOTLIGHT
[21:28] <Jay> quiet in the house :)
[21:28] <steak> great show Jay thanks
[21:28] <TomE> david, yes ty
[21:29] <eu> Great seminar Jay, makes me see I must reread your book again, thanks.
[21:29] <a23> Thanks Jay.
[21:29] <splitster> and herrrrrrrres Ral
[21:29] <dr> thanks Jay
[21:29] <sparky> thanx jay for the review
[21:29] <Fitz> ok thanks wayde
[21:29] <ral> OK all....and now for something compeltely different....
[21:29] <oxs> thanks jay
[21:29] <flash1g> Excellent seminar Jay, Thanks.
[21:29] <gikke> thanks Jay
[21:29] <josemans> anyone trying to set up your Cyber go to charts at the right of your screen, in there click on Jay's instructions for Cyber, print it out on your printer and follow the instructions..simple as that
[21:30] <Jay> folks, please stop DCC's to ral and lets let Ral go over his methods
[21:30] <matt> Thank you Jay
[21:30] <Jay> shhhhh
[21:30] <ral> first I'd like to welcome all the new members and the large contingenet of trials members...welcome.....
[21:30] <ral> and of course a hello to all the regulars here who I've come to know....
[21:31] <riverdan> 90 trial members, wow.
[21:31] <ral> Jay has just beautifully outlined the basic prinicples and methods of momentum trading...
[21:32] <ral> what I'd like to do this evening is sketch out for you an outline of a "different approach to trading..."
[21:32] <ral> for those of you who have recently bought and are reading Jay's new book
[21:33] <ral> you may notice that there is a chpater in the back where I do just this....
[21:33] <garth3> het ral i saw you at the show
[21:33] <ral> so for a more leisurely introduction to my approach you can read that chapter....
[21:34] <ral> for more infromation on my methods and techniques, there are a zillion seminars where I go over these things in many different ways
[21:34] <ral> and if you find yourself getting interested in what I do and teach here, there are other ways to continue exploring these things mroe deeply....
[21:35] <ral> Few of us realize that during a regular trading day if one could perfectly capture the main oscillations in the movement of a stock, an index, a future contract.....
[21:36] <ral> that the gain on our dollars at risk would exceed 100%....
[21:36] <ral> this is the power of the capital multiplying effects of price oscillation....nothing else comes close to it.....
[21:37] <ral> the problem is, that in practical real time trading, it is not possible to do this....
[21:38] <ral> but this does not mean that we don't try....
[21:38] <ral> the secret of capitlizing on the capital multiplying effects of price oscillation
[21:39] <ral> is to have your dollars in a trend while the trend is trending
[21:39] <ral> to have your dollars out of the market when the market is consolidating
[21:39] <ral> and to re-enter the trend when the trend continues or reverses....
[21:40] <ral> now in principle, this sounds fairly straightforward....
[21:40] <ral> the problem, of course, is how to identify a trend?
[21:40] <ral> but the problem is more comlex than that....
[21:41] <ral> and the complexity has to do with "time"
[21:42] <ral> now if I were to show you two charts now and they were unlabelled....
[21:42] <ral> and I asked you to identify what they were....
[21:42] <ral> you and no one else in the world would not be able to do it....
[21:43] <ral> looking at such charts, we cannot tell whether we are looking at a 1 minute chart or a weekly chart or a yearly chart
[21:43] <ral> and we cannot tell whether we are looking at JDSU, or the OEX or pork bellies....
[21:43] <ral> from this point of view....
[21:44] <ral> ALL markets are the same
[21:44] <ral> regardless of time frame
[21:44] <ral> or what the market is
[21:44] <ral> the blessing in this...is this....
[21:44] <ral> it means that if we find workable methods....
[21:45] <ral> they will be "fractally" related to any market in any time frame
[21:45] <ral> this being so,
[21:46] <ral> the question of trading becomes a two part adventure....
[21:46] <ral> the first part is finding methods that work (with the proviso, that you can work the methods)
[21:46] <ral> and teh second part, is determining the most "money" efficient markets to trade....
[21:47] <ral> by money efficieny is meant the %gain in relation to the amount at risk per unit of time....
[21:48] <ral> on this basis, there is a clear "order" in terms of money efficiency....
[21:48] <ral> the most efficient market is the options market....
[21:48] <ral> the next most efficient market is the futures market
[21:48] <ral> and teh least efficient market is the equities market
[21:49] <ral> this is very interesting
[21:49] <ral> because the number of traders in these markets is exactly the reverse....
[21:49] <ral> most daytraders are equitiy market traders and the fewest number of day traders trade options....
[21:50] <ral> one point in favor of this arrangement is this....
[21:50] <ral> if you can succeed in equity trading....
[21:50] <ral> everything you learn there will benefit you in trading the other markets
[21:51] <ral> so it makes sense to cut your teeth in trading stocks and to get good at it....
[21:51] <ral> then you will be ready for more money efficient trading'
[21:51] <ral> now I learned an important thing at the Ontario expo recently....
[21:52] <ral> you may know that brokerage houses keep a set of internal accounting of all accounts under their auspices....
[21:52] <ral> in terms of capital flow....
[21:52] <ral> what I learned was this....
[21:53] <ral> that in those accounts labelled "daytrading accounts" (becayuse of the activity and such)....
[21:53] <ral> at this point in the year 90% of those accounts are suffering losses for the year to date.....
[21:54] <ral> and of these nearly 2/3 have losses in excee of $100,000
[21:54] <ral> for this year alone
[21:54] <ral> does that say something for how difficult this business is?
[21:54] <ral> are you listening when Jay says....learn, learn, learn?
[21:55] <ral> our major emphasis here from the beginning has been on how to educate the trader to survive.....
[21:55] <ral> it takes a good year to learn to trade well enough to make a go of it.....
[21:56] <ral> our emphasis on education persists and will persist because it is the CORE of what you do here....
[21:56] <ral> we do not like to see people lose money....
[21:57] <ral> but we know that losing money is part of the learning....
[21:57] <ral> the secret is preserving enough money to keep in the game until you can learn well enough....
[21:58] <ral> once you do well enough--and it can be done as witness the purple people who have done it---
[21:58] <ral> then you are in a position to aim for the ideal....
[21:58] <ral> to be able to use the markets to buy yourself TIME....
[21:59] <ral> in my view, the successful trader can trade for an hour or so and be done....that trader has bought TIME...
[22:00] <ral> and believe TIME is the mosst important thing to have...
[22:01] <ral> so all our efforts here are designed over and over again to help train you to become good traders...traders who can buy themselves time to live their lives.....
[22:02] <ral> Jay has illustrated for you tonight, relatively short term trading, momentum trading, scalping trading....and I agree with Jay that one shoul dtry one's hand at this form fo trading and see if you can learn it and make it work for you.....
[22:02] <ral> I also know, that many people are not cut out for momentum trading because it can be highly pressured and very stressful.....
[22:03] <ral> this is not anyone';s "fault" nor does it reflect lack of trying....
[22:03] <ral> it is often a difference in personality type....
[22:03] <ral> or age,
[22:03] <ral> or any of a number of other factors....
[22:04] <ral> so for this reason, we have some alternatives ways of trading...
[22:04] <ral> so you will find me teaching these alternative ways here
[22:04] <ral> as well as often focusing on other markets than stocks...
[22:04] <ral> for exmaple, the futures market (NAZDAQ 100 futures, S&P Futures, etc.)
[22:04] <ral> as well as the options markets
[22:05] <ral> and using various methods for indicating stocks that may be held for several days or even longer....
[22:06] <ral> so you will find me generally emphasizing longer time periods and different markets than Jay....
[22:06] <ral> this makes it possible for each of you to find your "spot" ... that place where you and your methods are a match.....
[22:07] <ral> some of you know that in my professional life I am a Jungian psychoanalyst and nearing retirement from that work....
[22:07] <ral> but my interest in the psychological aspects of the market and the psychology of traders continues to increase
[22:07] <ral> so you will find me giving seminars about psycholgical topics of importance to traders....
[22:09] <ral> there is now question that the most difficult aspect of trading has nothing to do with methods...it has to do with YOU...most problems in trading are psychological problems....the emthods are simple in comparison....
[22:09] <ral> we can provide teh finest of methods for use in any time frame....it still is going to hinge on how you learn to manage yourself.....
[22:10] <ral> there is no way around this....
[22:10] <ral> most traders refuse to learn this
[22:10] <ral> keep in mind as well that the difficulties in trading are very similar to the problems in addicitve processes....
[22:11] <ral> and these are the msot difficult of all psychological problems to overcome...particularly on ones own....
[22:11] <ral> this is part of the uphill battle that the "learning curve" rides on.....
[22:12] <ral> the degree of honesty that is required in becoming a successful trader is enormous....
[22:12] <ral> in trading you will encounter yourself in ways you have not before....
[22:12] <ral> so there is more to learn than jsut the methods
[22:12] <ral> and I want you to know that we know this here....
[22:13] <ral> so enough "preface"....let me say some general things about my methods....
[22:13] <ral> I have been involved in the markets in one way or another for more than 30 years
[22:14] <ral> longer than some of you are in years...
[22:14] <ral> early on I told myself to TRY EVERYTHING....
[22:14] <ral> and over those years, that's exactly what I have done....
[22:14] <ral> have tried all systems,
[22:15] <ral> I have tried all gurus,
[22:15] <ral> I have tried all the secret societies
[22:15] <ral> I have tried all the methods
[22:15] <ral> so I have some experience....
[22:16] <ral> I have made every mistake you can think of...
[22:16] <ral> and many you cannot
[22:16] <ral> and when all is said and done....
[22:17] <ral> I have reduced my expereince to eight factors whcih I think are the most important in relation to the market
[22:17] <ral> 1. the methods I use must be applicable to ALL markets in ALL time frames....
[22:18] <ral> 2. the methods I use must be totally OBJECTIVE and not given to all sorts of possible interpretations
[22:19] <ral> 3. the methods I use must use ACTUAL market prices and not averages, derivations, or other statistical derivaties....
[22:20] <ral> 4. the methods must give me actual market prices on which to ACT whether that act is entry, exit, or stop.....
[22:21] <ral> 5. The methods MUST be capable of identify TRENDS under any and all conditions, TREND EXHAUSTION (e.g., consiolidatuion), and COUNTER-TRENDS....
[22:22] <ral> 6. The methods must not be PREDICTIVE in nature, but must always rely on what teh market ACTUALLY doing....
[22:22] <ral> 7. The methods must tell me in specific market prices WHAT to do and WHEN.
[22:23] <ral> 8. And most of all, the methods must incorporate means to be sensitive to the principle of ALTERNATION.
[22:24] <ral> By alternation, I mean a very simple thing: up trends begin at lows, down trends begin at highs...the market is constantly in a flux of alternation.....the methods must be sensitive to this in all respects.....
[22:24] <ral> Now no single method is going to do all these things....
[22:25] <ral> But there are certain methods, when used in combination, come pretty close to satisfying my list of requirements....
[22:25] <ral> the first of these methods is what I call the "three-price break."
[22:26] <ral> This is an old Japanese trend detection and trend following method b ased only on market prices...this is partly the reason it appeals to me....
[22:26] <ral> also, it always gives an unambigous answer....
[22:26] <ral> on this method, we are always in an uptrend or a downtrend....
[22:27] <ral> built into this method are some rudimentary clocks...in the sense that it takes time to make each successive high in whatever time frame.....
[22:28] <ral> this method always gives you a "break price" which if it occurs in the market in the time frame you are following, then the trend "breaks"....when that happens, one always immeiately knows the price at which the trend will reverse again....
[22:29] <ral> as the trend matures, the break price changes soemthihg like a trailing stop....
[22:29] <ral> Japanse traders have used 3pb alone for a long time and it can be used that way.
[22:30] <ral> a good descriptio of this method is available in Steve Nison's first boook on candlesticks....
[22:31] <ral> incidentally, in talking with Dr. Nison at the Ontario meeting I learned he is interested in including a chapter on daytrading with candlesticks in his revision....so he is very interested in our site because we make use of candlesticks in a daytrading context....more about that later.....
[22:32] <ral> the problem however with any trend detection/trend following method is that there is nothing in the method that tells you how long the trend may be expected to last, or where the trend is liekly to dafe out, or when the trend is likely to turn....
[22:32] <ral> because of this, I combined the 3pb trend method with various Fibonacci-based methods
[22:33] <ral> for those of you unfamiliar with Fibonacci based emthods, you will have the opportunity to learn all about them here....
[22:34] <ral> these methods are based on the 12th century mathematician Fibonacci, who revolutionized European mathematics by bring such concepts as "zero" and teh arabic number system....
[22:34] <ral> until Fibonacci, thirty in the Roman system was XXX, after Fibonacci it was 30.
[22:35] <ral> he discovered many interesting mathematical properties, not the least of which was a particular number series....
[22:35] <ral> this series is as follows: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55....
[22:36] <ral> as you can probably discern, this series is produced by adding the 0 and 1 to get 1, then 1 nad 1 to get 2, then 1 and 2 to get 3, then 2 and 3 to get 5 and so on....
[22:37] <ral> the itneresting thing about this series is that once you get a s\certain distance into the series, the ratio of these nunmbers becomes a constant....
[22:37] <ral> that is 13.8 = 1,618 and 21/13 = 1,618 and so on....
[22:38] <ral> these constants are interesting because they begin to descriobe the GROWTH of many things, both man made (like pyramids) and natural (lie a snails shell and a galaxy)...
[22:38] <ral> in fact more thinngs in the natural world grow accoring to this proportion that any other mathematical descriptor....
[22:39] <ral> even you grow this way...which you can learn my measuring the ratio of all your verious body parts to each other.....
[22:39] <ral> so it was natural at some point to apply this number series to the idea that stock prices might grow this way too....
[22:40] <ral> and so implicit in this ratio is that idea of something growing from one point to asnother....
[22:40] <ral> think you can see that this idea has the potential for gioving us a way to estimate how far a trend might grow....
[22:41] <ral> so I have developed various ways of working with these importatn ratios, and have developed various calculators available here to you, which can be used to estimate the growht in prices in any market in any time frame....
[22:41] <Rexx> 55/34
[22:42] <Rexx> sorry
[22:42] <ral> moreover, we can use the vary same prnicples to think of things growting in relation to time...
[22:42] <ral> so we can use the Fibonacci number series proportions to give us an estiamte of the time of growth form one point to another....
[22:44] <ral> so combining trend detection and trend following procedures (three-price break) Fibonacci calcualtors for where in price asnd time we may expect trend growth and trend decay....gives us a set of powerful techniques to make use of in any time frame, in any market....
[22:44] <ral> so we can use the very same principles whether we are looking for a stock or index to grow from point x in y number of days....or in minutes.....
[22:45] <ral> so once you learn the principles behind these methods, you can use them in any market in any time frame....
[22:45] <ral> then, we also know that markets do not grow in straight lines, but by oscillations....that is by alternation.....
[22:46] <ral> so we need some way to determeine on a "within-in" trend basis when these alternations occur....
[22:46] <ral> this is where we turn to the method of identify the "market structure" in a series of prices....
[22:46] <ral> by market strcuture, I mean finding those points where the trend "failes" for some period of time...
[22:47] <ral> we do this by finding what are called "market strucutre highs" and "market stucture lows"
[22:47] <ral> you will obersver, for example, that in any time frame, when a trend is going well,,,we have a series of higher highs and higher lows.....
[22:48] <ral> but at a s\certain point, we will have a series of prices that have this structure: high, higher high, lower high....in what ever the time frame....
[22:48] <ral> this pattern in three consecutive time frames marks the "market strcture high"
[22:49] <ral> similarly, in a down trend, a low, followed by a loweer low, and then a higher low....marks a market strcture low.....
[22:49] <ral> these structural points in a price series are important because they give us a momentary snap shot of the principle of alternation in action.....
[22:50] <ral> and we are intersted in market stcture lows because new upmove may "grow" out of them, jsut as new donwmoves may "grow" out of market stcture highs....
[22:52] <ral> so armed with these three basic elements....three-price break, Fibonacci price and time estimation techniques, and market strcture points....we have the beginning of a cohesive and complrehensive trading "project" that can be used in any time frame and in nay market....
[22:52] <ral> there are of course many details about these methods and other ancillary methods (such as candle patterns you will see me describe, such as Ram's Heads, TOPS, bear claws, and so on)
[22:53] <ral> details we cannot possible cover in one short evening....
[22:54] <ral> but I wil be beginning an extensive series of seminars on Wednesday that will be a detailed and building-block approach to these combiations of methods....so there is a good opportunity over the next few weeks to learn these things in great details.....
[22:55] <ral> so that's a kind of once over lightly of what is available....as Jay said...learn his methods first, see if you can learn those methods well...what you learn there will serve you well in learning these other emthods....in any event, there is plenty of time to learn these thinsg, we go over them all the time, so don't be daunted....
[22:55] <ral> let me stop here and see if there are any questions before we all fall over and go to sleep....
[22:56] <hapy> zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, lol just kidding ral
[22:56] <cj> ral, what should we read first to be able to even somewhat comprehend what you are talking before your seminars
[22:56] <darkmagic> Will be there will bells on, thanks Ral
[22:57] <paco> ral - you said an msh =(a) high, (b) higher high, (c) lower high- must (c) be lower than (a)?
[22:57] <ral> no paco...just lower than b
[22:57] <paco> thanks
[22:57] <ral> hapy...kidding allowed...we need all the humor we can get in this buisness!
[22:57] <cj> books, etc.
[22:57] <splitster> Ral, how would you rate your gain percentage using your methods?
[22:58] <pauln> Ral, does 3pb work on min, hour , days etc?
[22:58] <ral> cj...a good preparation would be the chapter in Jays book....
[22:58] <hapy> Ral, is the 3pb measured after the msh msl?
[22:58] <cj> That I can do ral, thanks.
[22:58] <ral> splitster...in January I started with 80,000 and trhough May had run the sample portoflios to opver $500,000 using these methods....
[22:59] <mrbreeze> Thanks Ral I have looked back in the seminars was wishing you would start to go over the basics with us in current time and conditions
[22:59] <splitster> wow not bad at all thx
[22:59] <ral> I haven't been tracking thje trades since June but will begin again soon in some form to illustrate whaty's possible
[22:59] <spider> ral... it seems (though it may be rare) that MSL and MSH can have all 3 candles the same color... is this correct?
[22:59] <gikke> Something different: how did you and Jay got together?
[22:59] <ral> those gains were based largley on trading only 100 shares of the stocks, 1 futures contract, and 3-5 option contracts.....
[23:00] <ral> well within the limits of any trader here
[23:00] <ral> paulin...any time frame
[23:00] <pauln> Good info. Thnks, Ral
[23:00] <ral> hapy...3pb and market strcture are entirely separate methods, but can be combined to make useful trading decisions
[23:01] <splitster> Ral, what is your average time frame for holding a stk and do you take stop losses with your method
[23:01] <ral> spider...color of the market structure set is not relevant...can be any combination of colros
[23:02] <ral> jay and I met in virtual reality in a place called DTO...you don't want to know about it....we met in person last weekend....for the first time.....
[23:02] <Jay> we bonded :)
[23:02] <spider> dto virtual unreality
[23:02] <Jay> ok gang, lets go ahead and wrap this up
[23:03] <cj> first time?!?!?!? wow!!
[23:03] <jpc> ral you don't seem the dto type
[23:03] <ral> splitser...in different months I illustrated both use of various stop techniques as well as the "basket" approach which uses no stops at all....
[23:03] <pauln> Is software available to compute 3pb?
[23:03] <darkmagic> wow, just like I met my girlfriend ;)
[23:03] <splitster> thx Ral
[23:03] <ral> OK all..thanks for the good questions...never hesitate to ask any questions you have....
[23:03] <Dodge> He wasn't---
[23:03] <Jay> ok gang, we would like to thank you all for ATTENDING our FALL ORIENTATION 2000 seminar
[23:03] <rapid> RAL, you and Fitz made reference to risks involved in a trade like EMLX on Fri - 10% of capital etc --- you may want to elaborate for newer traders
[23:03] <ral> yes paulin,...there are many programs availble for 3pb
[23:04] <Rexx> Sorry for the interuption Ral, I was actually paying attention. I'm looking forward to learning more about your methods.
[23:04] <Jay> this seminar will be ARCHIVED and we will also have a link and email out for everyone
[23:04] <splitster> Great job Jay and Ral, I learned a ton as always with you guys.Thanks so much. :-)
[23:04] <Jay> link will be availabel for trial members to review off nightly reports page tommorrow :)
[23:04] <darkmagic> awesome guys, many thanks
[23:04] <mrbreeze> Thanks Ral Thanks Jay Goodnight everyone
[23:04] <willieboy> I agree, very nice
[23:04] <tradewind> Thank you very much!
[23:04] <Jay> Thank you Ral, thank you purple people and thank you members and guests :)
[23:04] <jpc> thanks Jay and Ral for an excellent seminar
[23:04] <sks> Thanks Jay and Ral - terrific evening
[23:04] <Gio> have a nice evening everyone
[23:04] <wayde> great seminar guys
[23:04] <ral> there is an old trading maxim that is very wise...it is simple....NEVER under any circusmtances risk more thn 10% of your trading captial in any ONE trade....EVER
[23:05] <wayde> nite gio
[23:05] <splitster> Thank you too purple people
[23:05] <darkmagic> hope to see you trial members again
[23:05] <cj> Thank you Jay,Ral, and Purple's
[23:05] <nitro> good night everyone
[23:05] <bligh> jay, ral, ...beautiful intro seminar! excellent job!
[23:05] <gikke> Thanks J&R
[23:05] <luke> good nite Nitro and Gio
[23:05] <Jay> The Trading Pit is a family of like minded hungry traders, thank you for making this place as warm and beneficial as it is all :)